TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Stocks' best week since early June ends the streak of weekly losses and shaves off a chunk of damage from the volatile August. The lack of major trade drama along with starting the week at the bottom of the August trading channel allowed stocks to finish the August swings on the upside. Consumer reports and better than imagined GDP numbers helped. The U.S. TSP stock funds were both up more than 2% for the week with the C-fund not far off of a 3% gain. The impressive week could not save the month; all the TSP stock funds landed losses for August with the greatest hit being a 4% loss in the S-fund despite a 2% jump this week.

Bonds (F-fund) underperformed in the last leg of August but outperformed for the month producing more than 2% of gains.

What's in store for September? Months have their own characteristics. August established trading ranges early while low volume allowed for big swings driven by headlines to push prices back and forth. Can we expect the volatile days to simmer down as traders get back to work from their end of summer vacations? Possibly. But unfortunately September tends to be one the worst performing months of the year for stocks. To start we have 15% tariff on China that went into effect today that includes apparel, footwear, tools, and electronics; all that could directly effect the consumer. The Federal Reserve meets half way through the month to decide what to do with rates so that may be a make or break for the month as well.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending August 30th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) had an early rebound off the break down of the previous week. Early on the index was held to its 20-day EMA but gapped up above its 20 and 50-day EMAs Thursday. The highs were produced Friday on par with the highs of the last few weeks. The C-fund gained 2.83% for the week to cut the August loss to 1.59%.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) made lower highs this week and closed below its 50 and 200-day EMAs. The resistance of August was trending down to give the an uglier technical picture to this chart than large cap charts. The numbers showed: The S-fund jumped up 2.12% for the week but ended the month with a loss of 4.19%.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) was up with U.S. stocks but could not make an attempt at trading above the 50 and 200-day EMAs. The support is rising but there are two open gaps below to be filled. The I-fund gained 1.68% for the week to nearly cut in half the August losses that finished at 1.77%.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) produced modest gains for the week remaining in its rising trading channel. Investors around the world still seek the yields of U.S. Treasury even with stocks gaining strength during the end of August. The F-fund was up 0.21% for the week and outperformed the TSP funds for August with a 2.6% gain.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
Facebook | Twitter

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.