TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were mixed this week with large caps (C-fund) falling more than a quarter percent while small caps were up more than a half percent (S-fund). Both pulled back early in the week following the previous week's rally, but small caps got a boost the last couple days of June during the Russell index rebalancing. Despite the outperformance this week, the S-fund lagged the C-fund for June. All the TSP stock funds were up more than 5% in June with the C-fund leading the pack with a 7.04% June. The first and third week of June had rallies that were the source of the month's success and both were followed with a week of consolidation as we saw in this week's action. This was a healthy pattern for the indices; the breaks between rallies kept indices from getting over extended setting up the indices for more buyers.

The meeting with President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this weekend resulted in a truce in a trade but no deal. Compromise were made on both sides for the time being. This short-term success in the trade dispute potentially could set up stocks to continue their June pattern into the first week of July.

Progress in trade could put a halt on the Fed's plan to lower interest rates. This will be on the minds of traders and along with global growth data will provide for more volatile action in the months to come.

Bonds were up into the weekend but the trade truce could ease investors fears on its potential economic impact. While stocks rallied in June the F-fund was also able to produce 1.26% in gains.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending June 28th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) fell early this week and looked to be heading to fill the open gap below. The index turned around before reaching the open gap but reached its highs of the week at the previous highs of early May. The index could trade higher into next week if investors don't forget about trade deals by then. The C-fund lagged the TSP funds for the week with the only loss; the fund was down 0.26% while up 7.04% for June.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) fell sharply early in the week until reaching its 20 and 50-day EMAs mid-week. From there the Russell index rebalancing boosted small caps into the weekend and pushed the S-fund into a 0.67% gain for the week ending June up 6.80% from May.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) fell early to fill and open gap but found support from there and eventually jumped up higher Friday to produce another open gap. The gap up put the index up 0.67% for the week. The index was able to end the month above the highs of May and ended June with a gain of 5.94%.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) climbed higher this week as those who feared problems in trade this weekend moved to the haven of bonds. With a trade truce made for the short-term we may see bonds sold in early July. The F-fund was up 0.43% for the week and ended June with a gain of 1.26%.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
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