TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Stocks mellowed out this week after soaring straight up the previous week while still adding to June's gains. The second week of the month carried a completely different character than the first; stock prices were traded rather than just bought. This is a pretty healthy move for the market. It allowed market players who caught last week's move to solidify profit while letting those left behind to find an appropriate entrance back into stocks. All was done without wild swings and above the previous week's closing price.

Investors are positioning themselves in front of next week FOMC meeting that market players will be watching very closely after mentions of a possible rate cut sent stocks soaring last week. The action early next week will likely be like this week but whatever comes of the FOMC meeting will almost certainly make moves. This sort of set up is hard for TSP accounts that can't put in limits or stops like day traders but have to guess at least a day in advance how the market will react; very risky in the short-term if you're fully invested. A lot of investors are probably confused where to put their money right now and are waiting for a healthy trend to develop before putting money back to work.

Bonds fell early this week but ended nearly flat for the week. The C-fund led the TSP funds with a 0.53% gain. The I-fund lost 0.27% for the week.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending June 14th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) reached a high in the first half of the week before falling to its low which happened to be last week's close. Investors were happy to buy at that price meaning there is still faith for this market to move higher. This month's action looks to be developing into a bull flag which tend to break out to the upside. A good set up in front of the FOMC meeting that will give traders clues to the likelihood of a rate cut from the Fed. The C-fund rose 0.53% for the week to lead the TSP funds.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) traded similarly but had the support of its 50-day EMA to keep it into positive territory. The index seems to getting resistance from the May high to the early highs of this week. This kept the index in a tight range to end the week. The S-fund rose 0.38% for the week.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) climbed higher from the previous Friday's action to start the week but its price was capped for the week at the bottom of an open gap. The index fell for the final days of the week eventually gapping down Friday to close near its 20 and 50-day EMAs. Open gaps are normal with this chart as it catches up with action overseas; but we still see this indices' action affected by open gaps on its chart. Moving averages along with tops of trading channels are below the current price to act as support. The I-fund lagged the TSP funds this week down 0.27% being the only loss in value.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) fell early but rose steadily to get back to even for the week. The closing price of May continued to act as support for the index. The F-fund was up 0.01% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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