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TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Stocks spent most of the week down from last week's close until big bank earnings and positive economic news out of China pushed stocks up Friday for their third straight week of gains. The trend of light volume resumed this week and trading was tight and uneventful for most of the week ahead of earnings. What seemed to be a good time for indices to pull back from their relentless surge turned into a breakout of resistance and new highs for the year.

JP Morgan came out with better-than-expected earnings Friday which sparked excitement in buyers after big banks have been underperforming indices so far this year. More big bank reports are coming out next week and traders may now be 'expecting' the banks the exceed expectations.

It's been easy to argue stocks have been overbought too quickly this year, but that was also a good argument at the end of February. Simplistically someone buys a stock when they are predicting that stock price will grow in the future. So it is interesting to see that investors continue to take that bet after stock prices have jumped up at the pace they have so far this year and are nearing a price that was quickly sold at the end of September. Where are the bears? Naturally us long-term investors want stock prices to rise but we've seen just in the past couple years how these resilient bull runs eventually get hit hard with reality. But the gains this year have really padded the retirement savings of those who have been brave enough to stick around. Depending on where you are in your career and your savings you have to balance whether you can afford to take the losses of a potential sharp turn around or if you can afford to miss out on the gains of the bull run.

The S-fund outperformed this week, a trend the past three weeks since small caps took the greater pull back mid-March. The F-fund fell modestly with the only loss for the TSP funds.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending April 12th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) has been sticking close to rising resistance but has a number of support below. The index opened just above that resistance line when it jumped up Friday morning. The price fell momentarily mid-day to fill the initial open gap but quickly moved back up and closed at the rising support line. There is still an open gap to be filled but the price to cover is now falling below its 20-day EMA. The C-fund was up 0.56% for the week, the third week of gains in row.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) made a decent power move by surpassing the February highs this week. The index has outperformed since bouncing off its 200-day EMA in March. Earnings reports are on their way the next few weeks, will the numbers be what's needed for small caps to push further? The S-fund was up 0.65% for the week.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) fell slightly early in the week and filled an open gap. The index jumped higher Friday leaving another gap, although small, below. There are currently three gaps below the current price but the index has been rising in its channel since the beginning of February. The I-fund rose 0.3% for the week.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) climbed slightly through the week but fell as stocks jumped higher Friday. The 20-day EMA marked the lows of the week. There is an open gap below the 20-day EMA but the moving average has been a regular line of support since late last year. The F-fund fell 0.12% to lag the TSP funds.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)