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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Stocks prices moved directionless through the week until sellers stepped aside mid-Thursday to the close on Friday resulting in more than 1% gains for U.S. stocks. The bears failed to gain any real momentum when the opportunity presented itself. Dip buyers were at work this week shutting down any pull-back keeping prices afloat. Stocks finished the week at their highs with some credit given to more news of progress on trade deals with China.

The upside momentum slowed down in March compared to the first two months of the year but buyers are not giving up. Poor economic growth has kept some hesitant about stocks while the dovish Fed and lingering trade deals has others optimistic stocks will continue to rise this year after its best quarter in a decade. The highs of last year are not out of reach but will traders find reason to keep buying stocks at a price that collapsed just month back?

A new quarter usually brings a new sentiment with it. It isn't likely for the second quarter to reproduce the success of the first; however not sure it is possible for the bull rampage to be stopped completely. We will see. Earnings season is approaching again where traders will be looking to be fed direction.

The S-fund outperformed the TSP funds just short of a 2% weekly gain. The F-fund was up with the TSP stock funds but it lagged with a 0.33% gain.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending March 29th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) teased a possible test of the 50-day EMA but couldn't get too far below its 20-day EMA without dip buyers pushing it back. Rising support levels helped but also marked the high for the week putting pressure overhead. The chart still has a rising trading channel although has been flat the second half of March. The C-fund rose 1.23% for the week.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) outperformed this week with a gain of 1.96% but that was a rebound from the more than 2% loss the previous week. The good sign for this chart was the held support from its 200-day EMA. There is a falling resistance line above that could force a second test of the moving averages.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) rose this week but did not fill the open gap from the previous week. Rather the bottom of the open gap seemed to act as resistance for the index. Rising support and the 200-day EMA keep the index at bay but there is an open gap to be filled under the 200 and 50-day EMA . The I-fund was up 0.6% for the week.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) continued to rise this week but pulled back slightly at the end of the week when traders began to move back into stocks. There is the open gap below the current price; if the gap isn't closed soon it will intersect with the 20-day EMA which has been strong support for months. The F-fund was up 0.33% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)