TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

The bulls reclaimed stocks this week without delay. After falling five straight days the previous week, stocks were up four of five days this past week. Along the way new highs for 2019 were produced for the S&P 500 Friday. Nothing major changed from the previous week. More poor economic data was released and the pull back was blamed on it so who knows what investors really care about. We may be back to celebrating data that reassures the Fed will remain dovish.

What may be more convincing is the indices had a prime set up for a bounce coming into the week sitting at the cluster of moving averages. The action early in the week was a bit explosive sparking the momentum but things got choppy as the week closed out and resistance levels were approached. There is plenty of logical reasons why stocks are overvalued but investors watching the charts are not interested.

Next week is another FOMC meeting where it is fairly certain rates will be held steady. Investors will be looking more to see if the Fed's choice of words remain accommodating to the market.

Bonds were up with stocks this week and the reasons given were the same for stocks: poor economic news. Bonds are usually the safety net in light of a trouble in the economy. But this week cash was moved both ways. Bond buyers may also be retreating expected increase in volatility in stock markets after the bears showed their claws the previous week.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending March 15th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) bounced off its 50-day EMA to start the week to develop another potential layer of rising support. The 20-day EMA was cut through easily but the momentum slowed when the index hit the previous rising support the failed last week. The C-fund was up 2.95% for the week to outperform the TSP funds.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) was also up and not far behind of the S&P 500's return. The difference is the charts price did not rebound back to the old support. This could mean weakness in the chart or more potential for growth next week compared to large caps.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) chart made some moves after it bounced of its 50-day EMA and then moved above its 200-day and falling resistance and ended the week with a gap up on Friday. This left an open gap. The global economic slowdown data is not scaring stock buyers, in fact it seems to be doing the opposite. The I-fund was up 2.8% for the week.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) also moved higher this week but was kept at the level of rising resistance. This give the chart some room to free fall but has its 20-day EMA and rising support to catch it. The F-fund was up 0.23% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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