TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

A shift in sentiment this week gave sellers the advantage after a year so far dominated by buyers. A gap open Monday was followed by a 'sell the news' reaction from trade deal headlines. The rest of the week was taken over by poor global economic data and concerns of a slow down in U.S. growth. The trade negotiations have gone on long enough that its likely that the deal has already been priced in; attention this week was back on the concerns that had traders retreating in late 2018.

The February jobs report came out Friday with a shortage of expected added jobs. This was another reason to sell but not all the numbers on the report were disappointments such as a decline in unemployment.

Volatility in stocks is now expected to pick up with this week won over by the bears. But the bulls have had the momentum and the pull back this week could be seen as a buying opportunity. Whether the net outcome will be up or down, its seems apparent the steady rise in stocks this year is over. We have entered the price range where both bulls and bears have leverage.

Bonds outperformed this week as traders retreated to less risky assets with weakness in stocks. The F-fund rose 0.68% for the week. The underperformer for the TSP funds was the S-fund that fell 3.61% for the week. The C and I-fund were also down around 2% for the week.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending March 8th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) fell out of its trading channel and through its 20-day EMA this week. The index does have the potential support of its 50 and 200-day EMA just below. The C-fund declined 2.12% this week.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) also fell through some previous support and actually hit its low for the week where the 50 and 200-day EMA intercept. We will see if this double support will keep the index up after it lagged large caps this week. The S-fund was down 3.61% for the week.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) turned around this week after the ECB kept interest rates below 0% suggesting problems in the European economy to sustain itself. The index fell below its 200-day EMA after it moved above it mid-February. This chart is beginning to mimic its action in late September. The I-fund was down 1.9% for the week.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) came back this week after falling below the 20-day EMA the week before. Weakness across stocks sent investors to bonds and the index made new highs on the week to continue its impressive run. The F-fund was up 0.68% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.