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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Stocks fell early in the week following poor economic data showing a slow down in China as well as a decline in the rate of global growth. The sell-off Tuesday made for choppy action mid-week as the indices weighed out where to turn next after the upside momentum in January. The consensus was to continue higher. Stocks opened higher Friday to erase most of the losses from Tuesday in large caps and to push small caps into positive territory for the week. The surge in stocks Friday was contributed to a successful majority of earnings reports as well as news that the Federal Reserve will maintain a larger portfolio of Treasury securities.

A temporary reopen of the government also took some pressure off of stocks after analysts have been pointing to the economic effects of the long shutdown recently. Earnings will continue to come in next week and so far most expectations have been exceeded and celebrated while poor earnings like we saw from Intel Friday were shrugged off and had little effect on the indices.

The C-fund underperformed this week having the only weekly loss for the TSP funds. The S&P 500 index was held up by technical resistance to reach a level of gains for the week. The I-fund outperformed the TSP funds this week with a gain 0.48%.

Bonds were up with stocks for the week to gain 0.29% for the F-fund.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending January 25th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) fell early in the week to test the 50-day EMA. The moving average held as support and was the mark of the lows for the week. The index then gapped up Friday but was held to its 200-day EMA as the highs as we saw the previous Friday. We could expect a battle between the support of the 50-day EMA and the resistance of the 200-day but both have respective support and resistance just beyond each price. This set-up will most likely lead to more choppy action like we saw this week. The C-fund fell 0.21% for the week.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) also gapped up Friday but did not jump up to test its 200-day EMA. The index has room to move higher without technical restraints. But a pull-back to fill the open gap first would be a healthy move technically before moving higher to test the 200-day EMA. The S-fund was up 0.26%f for the week.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) fell back below a falling trend line Tuesday that the index had jumped above last week. The 50-day EMA held as support and the index also gapped up Friday to be back above that falling trend line. The I-fund led the TSP funds with a gain of 0.48% and seems to be in a similar technical situation it was in going into last week.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) continue to trade relatively tight after the big moves at the turn of the year. The index gapped up Thursday which led to a pull-back mid-day Friday to fill the open gap but the index closed near the highs of the day to keep a gain of 0.29% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)