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TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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After the first few sufferable weeks of December, stocks put on a show for traders producing the only week of gains for the month last week. Stocks began the week with the worst Christmas Eve sell-off in history. Christmas day must have revived the spirit of investors who finally all agreed the indices were oversold. The result was the greatest one day point gain on record Wednesday. It felt like a once in a lifetime sort of day but still only had enough behind it to erase the last two trading day losses. The follow-up day naturally came with an early pull-back but what came to surprise traders was the unexplained surge the last 90 minutes of trading. Stocks were down Friday after more intra-day swings ended just below the opening price.

The performance of this week came with no obvious catalysts. The greatest attribute to the swings is low volume trading. A handful of big traders can produce big moves in the indices while the rest are on the sidelines. None the less the week put some spark back into traders and investors who have been beaten down this whole quarter. There is one more trading day for the year and my guess is it will be either up or down or maybe flat. But that's just my opinion.

All the TSP funds were up for the week with the S-fund outperforming with a gain of 3.5%. These gains took off just a fraction of the losses suffered in the stock TSP funds for the year. The F-fund was up 0.21% and is just 0.09% away from where it started for the year.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending December 28th:

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) produced more lows on Monday but that would be low for the week. The index surged from there to move out of a falling trading channel intra-day Friday. What did not happen was a test of the 20-day EMA which it had the momentum late in the Friday but turned around quickly in the last hour. The C-fund was up 2.9% for the week but still is down 9.81% in December.

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) had similar action but was able to close above the falling trading channel of December. This came with an outperformance of the TSP funds with a gain of 3.5% for the week.

We saw a similar rebound week in EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) as well. The index is also below its major moving averages but was not able to test the closest 20-day EMA during the bounce. The I-fund was up 1.83% for the week.

AGG (Bonds / F-fund) continued to move higher for the month as it closed near its highs on Friday. The trading channel for this chart is a mirror image of the other charts above. There are a couple of open gaps below but the gains of December would need to be erased to fill the lower gap. The F-fund was up 0.21% for the week and is just down 0.09% for the year with one more trading day left in the year.

Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.

Thomas A Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive/a>
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)