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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Uncertainty from a multitude of angles dragged U.S. stock indices down more than 4% for the week. A 90-day truce in the trade war between the U.S. and China over the weekend loosened up geopolitical tensions enough for stocks to open higher Monday. The good times were short-lived and investor anxiety returned Tuesday producing the greatest loss of the week. Geopolitical fears were tightened again Thursday after the arrest of China giant Huawei Technologies' CFO for allegedly violating sanctions on Iran. Stocks were able to rebound off the lows of Thursday to minimize the losses. However, the jobs report Friday came up a little short and was not enough to keep investors interested and stocks slid to finish the week poorly.

The Federal Reserve have been rising interest rates to keep the growth of the economy to get out of hand. So far their efforts have been successful. Economic numbers remain positive and rising steadily yet the rate of growth is down, and the decline in stocks and the bond yields suggest investors are worried about growth. What exactly is being priced in here? Trade wars could be the greatest threat to future growth but to what extent and exactly when are very unclear. But the day to day high volatility we've seen in the fourth quarter is self propelling as it keeps emotions high. Every news headline is over exaggerated and investors are forgetting yesterday's news.

Some of us are having fun attempting to surf the waves of volatility but for others it creates a lot of stress about their financial future. My point is to say that if you haven't already, figure out which of these you are and self invest in educating yourself in how you want to navigate these uncertain times. If you are a frequent visitor to TSP Talk then you are already making those self investments.

The C and S- fund were both down more than 4.5%. The I-fund was down just under 3% for the week. The F-fund outperformed for the week with a gain of 0.86%.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending December 7th:"

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) began the week by nearly extending to the highs of November. From there the four day trading week brought the index back below its moving averages and just off the lows of November. The result was a loss of 4.55% for the C-fund.

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) was in a similar position but had its 50-day EMA to keep the resistance strong. Falling resistance also kept chart readers from buying and like the S&P 500 the index fell to its lows of November. The S-fund lagged the TSP funds for the week with a loss 4.84% for the week.

EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) had a rising trading channel finishing up November. The index dropped quickly while European tech stocks fell. This closed an open gap from last week but as it kept falling opened another later in the week. The lows of October were tested and the index moved below intraday before returning back above. The I-fund was down 2.80% for the week.

AGG (Bonds / F-fund) were up this week reaching prices we haven't' seen since the end of August. This comes as bond yields have been falling due to investors fear of a slow down in growth in the economy. Bonds are a safer bet during uncertain times in more risky markets like stocks. The F-fund was up 0.86% for the week.

Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.

Thomas A Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive/a>
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)