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TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Stocks bounced back from the disappointing action surrounding Thanksgiving pushing indices into positive territory for November; a confidence booster following the worst month of the year in October. Trade negotiations and rising interest rates from the Federal Bank have been the top drivers of markets for some time now. This week investors celebrated an optimistic step in both. There are high hopes that a trade meeting in Buenos Aires this weekend will produce more certainty in the trade negotiations with China. Investors have feared the trade disputes will carry through into 2019 keeping prices down for the rest of this year. Certain stock sectors are directly dependent on the trade negotiations and its worth celebrating any attempts at clearing obstacles.

The FOMC meeting this week led to a surge in stocks. The rate hike for this month seems to still be coming but a drop in certainty for continuing rate hikes at the current pace was a relief for traders. A less strict policy plan also gives economic reports a larger impact on rate hike decisions. These will be watched more closely than before. Bonds also were also bought with an increase likelihood of more gradual rate hikes.

All the TSP funds for up for the week with the C-fund outperforming with nearly a 5% gain. The outcome of the trade meeting over this weekend will be a main driver for how stocks kick off December.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 30th:

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) jumped back above its moving averages this week. This is a good technical move for the index. It also closed above a falling trend line. The action this week pushed the index into positive territory for the month of November. The C-fund was up 2.04% for November after jumping 4.91% for the week.

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) moved above two falling trend lines, long and short term.The index is still below its 50 and 200-day EMAs. The bounce this week did push the index back into positive territory for November and the year. The S-fund was up 3.58% for the week and ended November up 1.92%.

EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) danced around its 20-day EMA this week but did produce a gain. There is a bear flag formation which usually break down. The index closed below its 20-day EMA and its lows Friday were with the bottom support of the bear flag. The I-fund was up 0.96% for the week.

AGG (Bonds / F-fund) continued to trade in the rising trading channel of November. Bonds surged with stocks following the FOMC meeting but could not progress past the 200-day EMA. The F-fund was up 0.14% for the week.

Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.

Thomas A Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive/a>
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

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