TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

The bulls came to life this week taking some control after a bear dominated October. Three positive trading days in a row pushed large caps stocks up more than 2% and small caps up more than 4%. Stocks bounced back from a poor start Monday and the momentum carried through to Thursday and even into Friday morning. Earnings reports and an apparent ease in trade tensions between China and the U.S. kept buyers interested.

The indices pulled back Friday after a strong October jobs report. Good news for the economy makes investors nervous with the Fed on a quest to increase interest rates. Apple came out with a good earnings report but it did not meet the high expectations of investors. Apple's stock sold off dragging the indices with it.

The indices charts are still in poor technical shape. However, the success for the bulls this week may attract new buyers who have been waiting for the sell-off to finish before jumping back in. Good companies' stocks were dragged down with indices in October leaving a number of good buying opportunities.

Bonds fell as traders moved back into stocks for the week. The October jobs report also dragged bond prices down with concern of an increase in inflation and higher likelihood of more than less rate increases to come from the Fed.

Next week investors will be watching the Congressional elections closely for signs of a change in monetary environment to come.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 2nd:



Here are the monthly TSP fund returns for October:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) gapped up Wednesday but traded above the open gap three days to follow with just a dip into the gap at Friday's lows. We saw the chart move above its 200-day EMA but was kept below its 20-day EMA and pushed back below its 200-day EMA Friday. The bulls are satisfied with the week but still face the hurdle of breaking back above the moving averages. The C-fund produced a 2.45% gain for the week underperforming the TSP stock funds.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) also gapped Wednesday and reached above its 20-day EMA Friday and then closed just above it to end the week. The S-fund outperformed the TSP funds this week with a gain of 4.26% for the week.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) looked a lot like the charts above. EFA has some possible resistance from August and September lows as well as its 50-day EMA if the index carries this momentum next week. The I-fund gained 3.35% for the week.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) reversed direction this week after bouncing off its 50-day EMA the previous Friday. The index moved below its 20-day EMA Tuesday as traders moved into stocks. The index fell sharply Friday after a good October jobs report bringing fear into bond markets about inflation and rate increases from the Fed. The F-fund lagged the TSP funds as it fell 0.73% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive/a>
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