View RSS Feed

TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

Rate this Entry
Stocks opened down on Monday and the action was choppy to start the week with traders anticipating the FOMC meeting where a rate hike was expected from the Fed. The Fed did raise rates as expected which was followed by a sharp sell off in stocks and a rally in bonds. The knee jerk reaction from investors and computer programs was not likely from the rate hike, that was a near certainty, but rather from the more hawkish words of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaling the Fed is preparing to take the training wheels off the U.S. economy that has not only come back from a financial crisis since the Fed dropped rates to near zero in 2008 but is now in such a state the sustainable practices must be considered. The oversold stocks produced some swings as the week finished until action was muted as the week finished up.

The third quarter wrapped up this week and traders who were in stocks don't have much to complain about. The fourth quarter ahead will hold more trade war news, another expected rate hike from the Fed, earnings season, and mid-term elections. These all make for great buying and selling opportunities so its best to keep informed.

All the TSP stock funds were down less than 1% for the week with the I-fund taking the greatest loss of 0.85%. The F-fund led the TSP funds with a gain of 0.18% following a drop in bond yields after the FOMC meeting.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending September 28th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) fell back under a trend line from the peaks of summer but was also held above its 20-day EMA with help from a complementary rising support line. The index fell from its highs of the month produced last week but still held on to a gain of 0.57% for September thanks to technical support that has been solid for months. The gain for the month was extra impressive given the loss in U.S. small caps (S-fund) in September.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) ended September to put its self in downtrend going into the new quarter. This will be a good test for the 50-day EMA which has been a solid place of support for the index for months. The index now sits on multiple levels of support from rising trend lines, moving averages, and the highs of June and July. We will find out if this is attractive to investors or if they will take their money to the thriving large caps. The S-fund was down 0.72% for the week and finished September with a 1.76% loss to lag the TSP funds.




EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) jumped up early in the week but turned around after hitting the highs of July. The index eventually gapped down Friday which successfully filled the open gap from mid-September. The 200-day EMA is not far below the current prices so we may see a test of support. The I-fund lagged the TSP funds for the week but is success mid-September gave it the gains to outperform for the month.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was bought following the FOMC meeting but ran into some resistance from its moving averages and the falling trend line that started mid-August. The F-fund produced gains for the week, up 0.18%, but ended with a loss of 0.62% for September.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
Facebook | Twitter

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

Submit "TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up" to Digg Submit "TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up" to del.icio.us Submit "TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up" to StumbleUpon Submit "TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up" to Google

Comments


S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes