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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Stocks fell the first week of September erasing some of the late success in August. The S&P 500 produced a lower high each day and ended the week not far from its lows. Additional tariffs on China were thrown out there by the Trump administration this week which gave some traders a reason to sell after the uncharacteristic upside action for this time of year. The monthly jobs report came out Friday with more jobs added than expected and an increase in wage growth. The positive numbers for the jobs had traders backing off with an FOMC meeting scheduled this month and the good numbers make for another good reason for the Fed to increase rates this month.

Patterns of the past have investors expecting poor action in stocks during August and September. That was not the case for August this year. The poor start to September was the action traders expected all along. Now we wonder if this is a precursor to the rest of September or if this "correction" is bait for dip buyers. The indices for U.S. stocks have technical support below to suggest selling won't come easy. However, some traders may be routing for some more pull back this month to set up better buying opportunities as we enter the end of the year.

All the TSP funds fell this week with the I-fund taking the worst of it with a 2.83% loss. Bonds were down and the F-fund lost 0.44% for the week to outperform the 1 and 1.5% losses in the C and S-fund respectively.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending September 7th:




The pull back of the SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) closed the open gap from August and settled at the 20-day EMA for the week. The index has only traded below its 20-day EMA once since early July. If the index were to fall below there would be additional support from a rising trend line of a trading channel as well as the 50-day EMA below that. The C-fund was down 0.98% for the week.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) did fall and close for the week below its 20-day EMA. The highs of early summer are just below and the index has not tested the price for support since it broke out mid-August. That was a price that was hit about four times before the break out so it will be interesting to see how traders react if we return. The S-fund fell 1.48% this week.




EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) gapped down early in the week and continued to fall from there at a higher degree than seen in U.S. stocks. A gap was filled from mid-August on Thursday but that did not stop the sell-off. The I-fund fell 2.83% by the end of the week to match the lows of August.




The action in AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was a bit more mixed than seen in stocks this week. The index jumped back above is 20-day EMA Thursday but followed with a gap down open Friday the at led to the filling of an open gap from early August. AGG closed below its 50-day EMA for the first time since the end of July. The 200-day EMA is right below the current price. The F-fund fell 0.44% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

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