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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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More earnings reports were digested by investors this week with a majority being celebrated keeping stocks in positive territory despite more trade and monetary woes to stumble on. A few poor earnings such as from Netflix, American Express, and eBay added extra pressure to keep the S&P 500 to just a slight gain. Meanwhile the S and I-fund produced modest gains of under 1% with the I-fund leading the way.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified in front of congress again this week where his main regard was the accelerating pace of the U.S. economy and how the Fed plans to continue to gradually increase interest rates. Stocks rallied during his testimonies. President Trump criticized the Fed Thursday, which is an uncommon action for a president to do, for attempting to slow down the economy while his policies attempt to stimulate it. Stocks were down Thursday but were down before his comments so they may have had little effect on stocks and the main focus was on the slow down in earnings.

Only about 10% of the earnings from the S&P 500 have come in so far. Next week will be the largest inflow of earnings reports for the season which will have the greatest influence on the indices.

Bonds fell Friday after President Trump's criticism of the Fed along with his critical tweets of China and European Union manipulating their currencies and interest rates. The F-fund lagged the TSP funds with the only negative return for the week.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending July 20th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) remained above the March and April highs this week but peaked mid-week before erasing most of the gains. It is possible that Wednesday marked the highs of July but that will mostly depend on how earnings come out next week. A test of the prior highs seems likely and there is also an open gap from earlier in the month to be filled. The C-fund lagged the TSP stock funds for the week with just a slight gain of 0.04%.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) produced gains for the week but was kept at its highs that matched the highs of June. The 20-day EMA of the index held as support at the beginning of the week to give the index a step up to test the highs again. Bulls will be hoping for hot earnings next week to break the index into new highs. The S-fund was up 0.3% for the week.




EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) led the TSP funds this week in gains moving from below its 200-day EMA to just under its 50-day EMA above. This also included a move past a falling trend line and closing an open gap. There are two more open gaps above but we will see if the index can break above its 50-day EMA which it has been below for more than a month. The I-fund was up 0.63% for the week.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) fell out of the rising trading channel it had been in since mid-June. The index jumped around the highs of April and then fell below to its 20-day EMA on Friday. There is still an open gap below that could be putting selling pressure on the index. The 200-day and 50-day EMA will be there for possible support if the index tries to fill the open gap soon. The F-fund lagged the TSP funds with the only loss for the week as it was down 0.27%




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)