TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were down early in the week but action following the holiday pushed them up to decent gains. Trade negotiations were again a concern for traders keeping things slow to start a n historically more positive week due to the holiday. A solid jobs report on Friday was the catalyst to not only keep stocks above ground but push them to their highs for the week.

More jobs were added than expected by economist while unemployment edged slightly higher as well. This was a sign that more people are looking for jobs who weren't before; an optimistic sign for the economy. Wage growth was light which puts less pressure on the Fed to raise rates giving more reason for traders to celebrate the report.

Stocks and bonds produced gains following the jobs report but with a little bit of selling at the close on Friday we have to question if traders are going to be quick to take the profits. Trade issues will again be in headlines but we'll see if traders can stand to keep paying attention. Also, a meeting in North Korea didn't go as hoped and that may be a concern.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending July 6th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was up for the week to start the new month but that has been a pattern for the previous four months. The index seems to gain early acceleration in gains and retreats making monthly highs around mid-month. If that continues to be the case, we could expect a similar week of gains next week. However, it is a new quarter so dynamics may be different and patterns like this won't last for too long but its something to take note of for now. The C-fund was up 1.56% for the week.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) outperformed the TSP funds this week after falling down to its 50-day EMA the previous week. The 50-day EMA provided good support and with the positive seasonality of Independence Day and the solid jobs report Friday, the S-fund climbed 2.47% for the week.




EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) established some falling resistance at its lows for the week before making its way back to just under its 200-day EMA. The trend is down for the index but we could see it jump up to test the falling support of its trading channel. It must make it through its 200-day and 50-day EMA first. This week two open gaps were filled while one was left below. The I-fund as up 0.57% for the week to lag the TSP stock funds.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) faced resistance from its 200-day EMA with an open gap below coming into the week. Despite the early poor technical set up, AGG pressed above its 200-day EMA and produced its highest closing price in about six months. The push to higher territory came after bonds rose after the solid jobs report on Friday. When AGG closed above its 200-day EMA at the end of March it quickly retreated back below. Can the index build support from the 200-day EMA this time? The F-fund was up 0.24% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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