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TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Stocks failed again this week to find direction, although they ended on a high note. Each day of this short holiday week contained its own catalyst but neither the good news or bad news of the day could carry over to the next. The market fell early this week following international stocks due to political drama in Italy, the third largest economy in Europe. Investors suffered from short-term memory loss and stocks rallied the very next day as if there was no problem at all. Sentiment shifted again Thursday with some help from the Trump administration and their steel and aluminum tariffs putting some heat on trade relations with allies. Again stocks reversed from the previous day's action after a strong jobs report Friday to put U.S. stocks in positive territory for the week.

The jobs report came out with addition of 233,000 jobs and unemployment down to 3.8% - the lowest it has been since April of 2000. The dovish undertone of the Fed last week allowed the outperforming jobs report to be celebrated rather than scare investors away. The report did push bond yields back up as equities became more attractive.

Most of the major indices still sit within tight sideways trading channels. How long can this last? This month a FOMC meeting will take place with an expected rate hike. The on again, off again North Korean Summit is also scheduled to take place this month.

The S-fund outperformed the TSP funds this week with more than a 1% gain. The C-fund was more affected by the international turmoil and tariffs this week but still produced more than 0.5%. The F-fund was up slightly but gave up early gains of the week on Friday. The I-fund lagged down just short of 1% as it is directly affected by the European government issues.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending June 1st:

Here are the TSP fund returns for the month of May:

The S-fund outperformed in May with a gain short of 5%. The I-fund was the only TSP fund with a negative return for May.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) fell out of the sideways trading channel early in the week but found support from its 50-day. It was then pushed back within the trading channel and peak near the top of the May prices. The C-fund was up 0.54% for the week.

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) found its 2-day EMA early this week which marked the lows. The index was priced near even with the highs of the year at Friday's close. What could give investors reason to price small caps above where they sold-off months ago. There need to be a strong catalyst to make this reasonable. The S-fund was up 1.09% for the week.

EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) gapped down early in the week with the troubles in Italy. The index did find safety with its 200-day EMA but could not recover much after that. The open gap produced early in the week was partly filled Thursday but still remains open. The I fund was down 0.98% for the week.

AGG (Bonds / F-fund) gapped up early in the week and closed above its 200-day EMA for the first time since January. That did not last long and the 200-day EMA soon became a source of resistance. The open gap was filled Friday after the release of the jobs report showed a faster than expected growth in jobs and wages. The F-fund was up 0.17% for the week.

Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.

Thomas A Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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Updated 06-03-2018 at 04:46 PM by TommyIV

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Ups


SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

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