TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Is the Fed our friend? Or are their actions hurting more than helping?


The Federal Reserve is using short-term interest rates to lower inflation, but their method is inadvertently increasing the cost of housing. Not only have they turned themselves into a source of inflation, but their aggressiveness could push the housing market over the edge.

The easy money, low-interest rate, and broken supply chain environment that followed the initial shock of ...

A rally in tech stocks and optimism for a debt-ceiling deal over the weekend saved U.S. stocks from weekly losses. The S&P 500 spent most of the week in negative territory after a flat Monday and nearly 2% in losses over the next two days. The early losses were a product of debt-ceiling anxiety. The June 1st deadline set by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen comes next week and there is still no deal made on raising the debt-ceiling.

The worst case scenario is a default ...

The bulls found some footing mid-week to give life to what was becoming a dull and directionless stock market. Price range had been shrinking tighter and tighter in the previous week and that continued through the first two days of this week. But top government leaders sparked a two-day rally Wednesday and Thursday when they reassured Americans the U.S. will not default on debt. The confidence that debt-ceiling negotiations were going well was a sigh of relief for the nervous market, ...

Debt-ceiling negotiations are making the market nervous. Members within Congress and the President are in a game of chicken, each with the goal of raising the debt-ceiling but neither on board for the others' plan to get there. The market is starting to pay more attention with the shot clock running out of time. Thrift Savings Plan fund prices have been stuck in a trading range for weeks that continues to shrink tighter. No TSP fund moved more than 1% in either direction in a single ...

Jobs reports are tricky for investors. There is a balance that needs to be respected. A balance of a healthy economy and a market friendly Fed. Picture a tightrope walker, also known as a funambulist. The funambulist is the market, their tight rope is the support keeping them (prices) from falling.

The funambulist fears both sides of the wire. On the right he has inflation deteriorating his purchasing power, a worry about the cost of tomorrow. On the left he has a central ...