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4/27/12

Stocks rallied again yesterday after more decent earnings reports, and despite more concerns from the jobs market. The Dow gained 114-points and the gains were spread out through most of the major indices, except for the Transportation Index which was actually down 1.1% on the day.


For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.67% yesterday, the S-fund was up ...

It appears that the US dollar is lifting the market, by declining. A falling US dollar re-prices commodities in the indexes higher, and is the so called wealth effect. Today, viewed on the chart below, on the US dollar index bullish fund (UUP), we see a break of the 200 sma, and technically a break of the 200 ema yesterday. The price percentage oscillator (PPO) shows that there is still room to roam lower. Further, the RSI is not oversold in the 30 area as in previous occurrences, as we see ...

TSP Talk Sentiment Survey results for the week of 4/30/12- 5/0412

Hold: The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 52% bulls, 36% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 1.44 to 1. That is a neutral reading in a bull market which means the system will remain 100% S fund for the week of 4/30/12 -5/04/12.

Bull market rules have been in affect since the week of 1/09/12:

See latest survey results

To discuss or comment on the Sentiment Survey, ...

This chart suggests that the I fund was the leader before the recession. Since 2009 the international fund started out strong, but the small caps (S fund) overtook and is the clear winner. Lately the I fund is slipping below the large caps (C fund). The C fund always underperforms, and IMO is due in part to institutions raiding it in a trading process I call skimming, but we will address that later.

4/26/12

Despite some weak economic data, Apple's earnings seemed to be enough to give stocks a boost yesterday as it helped the Nasdaq to a gain of 2.3%, while the S&P added 1.4%. Apple is not in the Dow and it gained 89-points or "just" 0.07%.



For the TSP, the C-fund gained 1.38% yesterday, the S-fund was up 1.77%, the I-fund ...