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  1. Jobs Report

    Stocks acted very well despite the Dow the closing in negative territory. The S&P closed up modestly, while the small caps and international stocks closed up over 1%.

    The S&P 500 is coiling up for something. It is riding a rising wedge, which can be bearish, and the index remains below the 50-day moving average (exponential). It did manage to stick its head above that declining trend line, which hasn't been much of a factor as the S&P 500 continues to move above and below ...
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  2. That Was Then, This Is Now

    “We know this quarter is going to be bad, but looking into the future…”

    The technique is to qualify projections of the future by making a statement of fact, and quickly following it up with a statement of opinion so as to suggest the two are equal.

    If pressed, the basis for the argument will usually end up being something along the lines of “every time this has happened, it was the wrong time to sell.” This is the logical fallacy of appealing to probability: Since ...
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  3. Saving is Saving, Not Trading Down

    Perhaps the idea that “the new saving is trading down” has been significantly challenged by the same store sales news this morning. The new saving is not the same level of consumption at a lower margin retailer – the new saving is saving. Meaning, consumers not spending all their money. People are bothered because we may not be spending money at a level equal to or greater than we earn it.

    Much like to babble regarding decoupling a few years ago, the premise that consumers are not ...
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  4. Bullish, but sidelined

    I decided to go all cash just prior to Christmas, mainly because the SC rally was pretty anemic at that point and I was going to be out or town for awhile. I felt it was better to be safe until the market returned to normal trading in January when a better read might be discerned about direction. Since the 2nd of January was technically still part of the holiday period, I interpreted its action as a part of holiday trading.

    This week the holiday period is over and in two days we've ...
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  5. Stretched

    Stocks took a well deserved break yesterday after the very impressive Santa Claus rally. The best since 1974, so I hear. And the "pause" wasn't all that bad as small caps actually closed higher yet again. But oh brother, stocks are sure stretched to the upside now.

    The S&P 500 pulled back slightly but did manage to stay above that descending trend line and the 50-day moving average. So far so good, but the short-term indicators are not on the side of a continued rally ...
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