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  1. Do You Have an Edge?

    Welcome to the biggest casino in existence, where bets are placed on a seemingly infinite number of financial vehicles spanning hundreds of markets and thousands of sectors across the entire planet. Choose your favorite game mode from fundamentals to charting, astrology to sentiment, and many, many others. Step right up ladies and gentlemen, there's big money to me made.

    Sounds like fun, doesn't it? Even Jim Cramer makes it sound like a carnival. Speaking of Jim Cramer, make sure ...

    Updated 02-09-2009 at 06:50 AM by coolhand

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  2. Sentiment Surveys

    From our 2/06/09 daily market commentary.

    Our TSP Talk Sentiment Survey moved into neutral territory with a bulls (34%) to bears (51%) ratio of 0.67 to 1. That keeps the system on a buy signal for next week since this week's signal was a buy. By the way, the system is up +2.7% in 2009 with its new parameters

    The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey was rather strange this week. The bullish percentage remains 25% but the bearish percentage moved from 47% down to to 31%. What's ...
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  3. 850 and MACD

    From the 2/05/09 market commentary.

    We have been talking about watching the 850 area as a possible trouble spot for the S&P 500, and as if on queue, that is where the rally ran out of steam. The lower support is still intact, but a wedge pattern in a bear market tends to break down, rather than up.


    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

    Looking for a positive, ...
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  4. Hanging on, but...

    Stocks rallied yesterday once again holding onto the support we have been watching. The wedge formation the S&P 500 is now in is not bullish, so the rally could be throwing us a bone - to get out.

    There was a large disparity in the returns of the stock funds yesterday with the C-fund picking up 1.6%, the S-fund gaining 0.8% and, with the help of a weak dollar, the I-fund jumped 2.7%. Bonds gave back much of Monday's gains with a 0.3% loss on Tuesday.

    It's early, but ...
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  5. Put / Call Ratios

    I wanted to revisit the put / call ratios because the mid-January rally pushed the 10-day moving averages of the CBOE and the Equity put/call ratios back up toward areas that has been trouble for stocks. Those two indicators are considered the "dumb money". You can see that the dumb money appears to be getting overly bullish again.


    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

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