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6/21/12

Stocks were flat to modestly lower most of the morning yesterday before the Fed's policy statement when we got the usual post-Fed fireworks. After all was said and done, the indices were basically flat with the Dow losing 13-points.

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The rally has been explosive, gaining 96 on SPX in the last 12 sessions. Is the rally underway? Certainly the market is gaining strength, but can it continue? There has been a 155 decline from 1422 to 1267, taking 43 trading days, and the rally unfolding in 11 trading days (or 12 if you double count the low day on June 4^th). If this is a move against the prevailing bull trend from 1422, then we have an almost perfect 0.618 retracement as wave B, as shown on the chart. If the idea holds that ...

6/20/12

Stocks rallied again on Tuesday with the Dow posting another near 100-point gain. The S&P has now been up 4 days in a row so the pressure of being overbought may start to kick in.

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6/19/12

Despite the strong futures action on Sunday night, stocks lost ground and opened sharply lower yesterday. But buyers stepped up quickly and the indices finish the day mixed with the Dow losing 25-points, the S&P gaining 2, and the Nasdaq picking up nearly 1%.

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SPX 500 large cap market is within the 1344 resistance zone, being indicated by a blue line on the weekly chart. You can see where this line has alternatively been support or resistance since early 2011. It is currently resistance as the weekly close was 1342.84. This week there will be another test. The market may push above this level, but remember it is where the weekly chart closes that counts. Approximately 1349 would be a 0.236 fibonacci retracement of the 1074.77-1422.38 previous longer ...