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Stocks accelerated their downside pullback on Friday after peaking last Tuesday at some key moving averages. The Dow lost 292-points, and we saw 2% declines the Nasdaq and the small cap, while the C and I-funds lost about 1.3% each. Bonds also took a loss as yields have been continuing to rebound after a false breakdown. The recent strength in the dollar is certainly adding some pressure to stock prices.

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For the week ending 08-19-2022

This is my analysis of the weekly charts for the S&P 500, IWM, the VIX and 10-year yields. Premium subscribers also receive a daily commentary with the daily charts and my timing system’s signals for both TSP and ETFs outside of TSP.

Current YTD returns thru 08-19-2022:

TSP:
G fund: 1.57%
F fund: -9.39%
C fund: -10.39%
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Investors took the opportunity for some profit taking ending a four week stretch of gains for U.S. stocks. The bulls and bears fought for direction all week which flattened out the charts enough to lean the investor into a risk off mentality. It didn't help that volume was low so a few bad headlines was all that was needed to drive down the whole market. It was the small cap stocks that were punished the most. The S-fund lagged the TSP funds with a 3.20% loss for the week but ...

The bulls won the tug-o-war yesterday as they battled the bears pushing the S&P 500 above and below the break even point for most of the day before the bulls pulled out the win with a modest 10-point gain. The Dow fought off a 140-point early loss to close with a gain of 19-points but it was actually negative with less than a minute left in the day, so it was basically flat. The I fund lagged as the dollar rallied again. Bonds were up modestly.

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Stocks wobbled a bit and the charts are showing some cracks after a moderate sell off on Wednesday. The Dow gave up 172-points and the losses were more severe in the broader indices, with small caps lagging and falling nearly 2%. So, they don't go up everyday. We knew that but are they about to start a pullback? Is this a peak, or will they run right back up and keep the rally going? All good questions and investors now seem about split on that question.

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