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The new trading week is about to begin and our sentiment survey has issued a rare sell signal. I know it influenced my decision for this week as I sold the balance of my stock position, which means I'm currently 100% G fund. Here's the charts:




After getting modestly defensive last week, the Top 50 shows much more stock exposure going into the new week. If you remember, last week's charts also showed a very high level ...

MARCON Blue

F-Fund: Condition Red, AGG took a significant slide down to a 28% reading. This is slightly oversold, I'd consider it close to orange, but still red. We've already outlined how the 6-month window shows AGG to be in a dominant downtrending bear market, and this continues to be the case. However, within the white circle is a 36-day uptrend. Unfortunately this uptrend has been damaged with a 69% retracement from the 10 February low to the 16 March high. As a cautionary ...

Back to buying the dips

Stocks rallied again last week as investors seem to be shaking off the concerns of Japan and the Middle East. We’ve had a great 2-plus week run. Can it continue?

For the TSP, the C-fund was up 1.45% last week, the S-fund gained 2.68%, and the I-fund picked up 2.20%. Bonds (F-fund) added 0.04%, and the G-fund was up 0.06%.



Surprisingly, the final numbers for ...

No pullback yet, but I still have Monday as part of my original target time frame for it to happen. But while I've been waiting, our sentiment survey flipped to a sell for next week. That's the first sell signal for that survey since late December and effectively extends the window for possible weakness all the way out to next Friday. And its accuracy last year was certainly high enough to give it heavy weighting in assessing short term risk. So much so that I sold my 30% stock allocation today ...

Jobs report Friday - Stocks traded in a fairly tight range yesterday, but did sell-off a little into the close. The damage was modest as the Dow lost 31-points on the day as investors took some profits before today's jobs report

Market Commentary for 4/01/11

Current Daily Market Commentary