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  1. Setting The Tone: June

    In the Bonus section of the previous blog I highlighted some of June's issues. Of note, Feb/Jun/Sep are the only months with a negative 63-year average return.


    For the Month of June, our previous 42 years (1982-2003) have a 62% win ratio, for the 21-years prior (1961-1981) the win ratio was 38%. 63-years combined gives us a 54% win ratio.

    mlk_man's account talk-202405029-1-png
    We may want to consider the 1st few days of June might set the tone for how the month plays out. When ...
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  2. TSP Talk - Mixed day to start holiday shortened week

    The post holiday action was quite mixed with the Dow down over 200-points, the Nasdaq closing at a record high, and the S&P 500 needing a last hour rally to give it a 1-point gain. This is all following last week's volatile week of trading with some negative chart implications that have yet to be voided. Yields moved sharply higher so it has now been 8 days since they found support and started rebounding.

    ...
  3. TSP Talk - Post holiday after negative reversal and rally

    We had a little bit of everything last week. It was a post-options expiration week, and a pre-holiday week. Trading was whippy with relatively low trading volume, especially on Friday where it was the lowest trading volume day of the year. Friday also happened to have a big rally that followed a negative outside reversal day. Bond yields and the dollar were down, breaking the week's trend. Now what?

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  4. TSP Talk - Nvidia did its job, but the market failed to respond

    After gapping up at the opening bell on Thursday after Nvidia's earnings beat, the market had to deal with some hot inflation data that is not normally influential, and that sent yields spiking higher and the entire day's complexion changed. The Dow lost 600-points, small caps lost 1.5%, and several of the charts created negative outside reversal days, which can be troublesome.

    ...
  5. TSP Talk - Stocks were down but Nvidia was up after hours

    [Stocks were up early on Wednesday but the Fed meeting minutes were released and it showed that the Fed was concerned that inflation has been heating up again. Stocks sold off midday but came back to close just modestly lower after recovering about half the losses. Yields and the dollar were up, adding to the pressure on stock and bond prices. Nvidia reported after the bell, beating estimates and trading higher, so that could set the tone for today's trading. The Dow lost 200 points but it was ...
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