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Last week I posted some statistics that showed that when the Top 50 increased their stock holdings by more than 17% for a given week, the market often produced a weekly gain. In fact, the Top 50 had been correct six of the last seven times using this metric.

Make that six of the last eight times, as the S fund was punished with a weekly loss of 6.5% this past week.

I suspect the fact that this is now a bear market helped ...

Classic test

After a positive start on Monday, stocks rolled over in the latter part of the week and the S&P 500 finds itself nearing a test of the prior lows.

The TSP stock funds saw sharp losses for the week. The C-fund closed down 4.63%, the S-fund lost 6.50%,and the I-fund fell 4.50%. Bonds (F-fund) gained 0.36%, and the G-fund was up 0.04%.



For the month of August the C-fund ...

I've been traveling all day today and have had very little opportunity to watch the markets, although I see we reversed early gains and ended up significantly lower on the day.

Let's go to the charts:



Not surprisingly, NAMO and NYMO both moved lower today, although without the initial rally they'd have been even lower. Still, this is consistent with what I anticipated after yesterday's action.

...

8/19/11

Stocks dropped sharply on Thursday after a weak economic outlook, and some weak data. The Dow lost 420-points.

Morgan Stanley slashed its global growth forecast and the Philly Fed Index came in much lower than expected. The Philly Fed reading is the lowest since March of 2009, which happened to be when stocks bottomed in the 2007-2009 bear market, so if you are looking for a silver lining... We'll talk more about that ...

TSPTalk Sentiment Survey results for the week of 8/22/11- 08/26/11

Move to C-Fund: The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 27% bulls, 65% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 0.42 to 1. That is a buy signal but the system moved to bear market rules this week which means the system will move from the S-fund, to the less aggressive C-fund, for the week of 08/22/11 - 08/26/11.

Bear market rules are in affect 8/22/11:

See latest survey results

Todiscuss ...