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TSP Talk Sentiment Survey results for the week of 12/27/11- 12/30/11

Sell: The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 71% bulls, 19% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 3.74 to 1. That is the highest ratio since this same week last year in December 2010.

That is a big sell signal in a bear market which means the system will remain 100% G Fund for the week of 12/27/11 - 12/30/11, but last year the seasonlity won out and we saw modest gains.

Bear market rules ...

I believe it is, although you can still find disbelievers.



After seeing the market walk up to the brink of what was looking like a potential correction during the most favored time of the year for stocks, the market has roared back over the past three days. In that time, the S&P 500 has risen about 4%.

We did get some domestic data early in the day. Third quarter GDP advanced a mere 1.8%, which is less than the 2.% growth ...

12/22/11

Stocks had every reason to do a little pulling back yesterday after Tuesday's 337-point gain, yet the early losses turned into small gains by the close. The Dow closed up 4-points.


For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.20% yesterday, the S-fund was up 0.27%, the I-fund lost 0.21%, and the F-fund (bonds) lost 0.19%.

I look at this as a victory for the ...

The major averages were unable to follow through on yesterday's strong advance for a good part of the trading session as Oracle sent shock waves through the market following its first quarterly miss in 10 years.



As a result of the Oracle miss the entire tech sector set a pessimistic tone from the opening bell. The lows of the day came around 1230 EST and from there the market chopped its way higher to end the day mixed with the DOW advancing ...

12/21/11

Folks on Wall Street were scratching their heads as we had a big rally come out of, what seemed like, nowhere. Bond yields in Spain dropped sharply and we had a decent housing report, but yesterday's rally just told me that too many folks were on the sidelines waiting. The Dow gained 337-points.


For the TSP, the C-fund gained 3.00% yesterday, the S-fund jumped 3.65%, ...