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  1. Seasonality chart in step


    12/16/11


    For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.33% yesterday, the S-fund was up 0.84%, the I-fund fell added 0.35%, and the F-fund (bonds) slipped 0.08%.


    Someone pointed out to me yesterday that the market is doing a pretty good job of staying mostly in step with the historical December seasonality chart. Of course it isn't perfect - it never would be. But the lull came right about when we might have expected it, and that is a positive sign for the second half of the
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  2. Sentiment Survey Dec 19 - Dec 23

    TSP Talk Sentiment Survey results for the week of 12/19/11- 12/23/11

    Sell: The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 52% bulls, 38% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 1.37 to 1. That is a sell signal in a bear market which means the system will remain 100% G Fund for the week of 12/19/11 - 12/23/11.

    Bear market rules are in affect 8/22/11:

    See latest survey results

    To discuss or comment on the Sentiment Survey, go to Sentiment Survey Talk
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  3. Quick Update

    I've been traveling all day today and I'm a bit worn out as a result. I'm not going to post my charts tonight, but I did take a quick look at them.

    NAMO, NYMO, NAHL, and NYHL all turned back up a bit are are near their respective 6 day EMAs, but they all remain on sells. Any follow through tomorrow would probably flip them them all back to buys.

    TRIN is on a buy, while TRINQ is just barely on a sell. They are neutral overall.

    BPCOMPQ turned down a bit ...
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  4. Down Again

    The generally supportive nature of OPEX week has been anything but supportive for stock prices this week. For third straight trading day the market has dropped relatively hard.

    Of course the financial crisis in the EU continues to be fingered as the reason for the sell off as media reports and opinion pieces continue to paint a bearish picture of the situation.

    Such negativity often breeds bearish sentiment, but technical indicators have not been hands down bearish ...

    Updated 12-14-2011 at 09:27 PM by coolhand

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  5. The Fed spoils the rally

    12/14/11

    The Fed spoiled what looked like a positive day. After the policy statement was read, things went south in a hurry, but it seemed quite emotional so I'm very interested to see how investors react today. Emotional moves tend to reverse rather quickly.

    The Dow lost just 66-points on the day and the loss in the S&P 500 was modest, but the more volatile small caps and international stocks were hit much harder.

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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