JTH

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Here's a quick peek into December's seasonal statistics.

From 63-Years Q4 ranks as the best of the four quarters while December ranks in the middle (the best win ratio but lower average-of-gains).

When November closed the month up (43 of 60 times), December closed up 29 of 43 times, giving us a 67% win ratio based on the November close.

When the 1st trading day of December closed up (28 of 63 times), December closed up 24 of 28 times ...

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We finished October down -2.20%. From the 64 Months of October, this ranked as 13th worst. This is also the first time we've closed down 3 consecutive months since the pandemic low of Mar-2020. Additionally this is October’s 5th worst 3-Month performance at -8.61%.

From the chart below, our MTD high was 2.07% while our MTD low was -3.98%


While we have closed the last 3 months down, we are still up 9.23% YTD. ...

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This blog and most of the stats posted are geared towards our IFT limitations so it's only fair to post some November charts in Mid-October.

For the Long-term, here are some things we may want to consider as we prep our IFTs for the remainder of 2023:

--- From 1960, quarter 4 has a 78% win ratio (the best of 4 quarters)


--- From 1954 of the past 17 4-Year Presidential Cycles, Year 3 has a 76% win ratio ...

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Here's a quick review of the last quarter: Q3 closed down -3.65%, the last time we closed a quarter down was Q3 of 2022. This Q3 2023 ranked as the 46th best of 64, placing it in the bottom 28% of Q3s. The chart below shows where we closed Q3 in relation to its historical percentage closing range.


Looking ahead to quarter 4: We have what is historically the best performing of the four quarters. Q4 has a 78% win ratio, the ...

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Here's A quick review of September: This was the 2nd consecutive month we've closed down. The last time we had 2 consecutive down months was September of 2022 when the following October 2022 ended up as the low of that year, and thus began our 31.95% run into the July 2023 Top.

This September closed down -4.87%. Going back to 1960, Sep-2023 ranked as the 53rd best of 64, placing it the bottom 17%. The chart below shows we bounced off the average intra-month low, ...