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JTH

Trading the Stats: Week 18

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The markets ended the week on a sour note, but did manage to close the month positive.

Closing out the month of April, the S&P 500 had a below-average month, closing with a .27% gain which is the 27th best over the previous 41 years. Fortunately for the S-Funders, the Wilshire 4500 fared much better, with a 1.72% gain, ranking it as the 11th best over the previous 28 years. Based on the monthly close in March, I felt a bit disappointed with this month's performance, I expected more and we did not get it. Now that we enter the month of May, we look for the statistical transition period which begins the "summer slump" or the famous adage "Sell in May and go away".

Based on where we are within this stage of week 18, I statistically expect SPX to close positive with a 1-1.5% gain, with W4500 giving us a 2-2.5% gain.
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On the 6-Month Daily chart, SPX tested the previous overhead trendline. Looking at the last 2 days' worth of volume, it appears there was some selling with conviction, this is precisely the type of setup that screams "warning". But there's also good news in that we do have a tail to work with, where buyers stepped in off the 2052 low.
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JTH-ALPAFS - WARNING! With 3 of 4 indexes flipping over to a sell (plus having 2 IFTs) I will have no choice but to take the system to the sidelines, until things looks better.

28 Apr - W4500 breaks through 2 previous area of support, triggering a Triple Bottom breakdown.
29 Apr - Transports trigger a Double Bottom Breakdown.
27 Apr - NASDAQ 100 breaks through 2 previous area of support, triggering a Triple Bottom breakdown.
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JTH-ESD Since most of the month will be spent in the F-Fund, this is the month with the highest potential for ESD to underperform. As is, I do plan to move the system into the F-Fund on Tuesday.
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For the first 5 trading days of the month, we show a pop, then drop.
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For the last 13 Monday-Fridays, Tuesdays & Thursdays have been downright terrible…
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For myself, with the monthly tail-end drop, it was a stagnant performance, which isn't something I needed at this point in the year, but regardless, it was a win and there's always more work to do, as we head into a fresh month with a new set of IFTs.

Trade hard…Jason
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