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JTH

Trading the Stats: Week 14

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Based on the 1st day of April, I'd estimate the S&P 500 is on target for a 4.00% month. Here's a review of what's happened this April, last week, and last month.
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Looking at the S&P 500's long-term 6-month chart on the daily scale:

  • Friday's long tail down produced an outside day, making the 2044 low an important level for me to watch.
  • After testing trendline AC last Tuesday, we now have our 1st close over the highest descending trendline.
  • Volume is not low, but it is muted, a ramp-up in negative volume could confirm a short-term top.
  • A close below 2022 could escalate selling.

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Looking at the S&P 500's short-term 10-day chart on the 30-minute scale:

  • For the upside, I'm looking for a hugging test of 2085, alongside the trendline GH, which could happen on Tuesday.
  • For the Downside, I'm looking for a test of intersections D10, B8, D8, and trendline AD.

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Comparing week 14 against weeks 14-26, SPX has the 4th best winning ratio with the 4th best average gains, overall ranking 3 of 13, making it the best historical fund of the week.
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Comparing week 14 against weeks 14-26, W4500 has the 3rd best winning ratio with the 11th best average gains, overall ranking 11 of 13, making it the 2nd best historical fund of the week.
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Comparing week 14 against weeks 14-26, AGG has the 12th best winning ratio with the 9th best average gains, overall ranking 9 of 13, making it the worst historical fund of the week.
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Comparing what happens to week 14, when the previous week has closed up or down, SPX is significantly weaker, W4500 is slightly weaker, and AGG is significantly weaker. Based on this data, I'd choose SPX, because although the winning ratio is weaker, the average returns are stronger than W4500.
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JTH-ESD (Evolving Statistical Data) closed out March with a 7.49% gain, putting in a top 350 performance on the Monthly Auto Tracker. The system is currently in the C-Fund, is .63% MTD and 3.81% YTD. For now, there are no changes, ESD is projected to be in the F-Fund on 12 April and the S-Fund on 15 April. May's projected path is now published, where the best Combo starts off the Month of May in the S-Fund.

  • Each month can have up to 200,000 statistical combinations, I only display the single best combination for each fund, starting out on the first day of the month.
  • The best calculated path is always Combo 1, day 1, it ranks higher then Combos 2, 3 & 4.
  • Combo 2, day 1 is not the second best path, it's the best path for the next best fund.
  • For April, Combo 1, is the best path for starting the month in the C-Fund.

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JTH-ALPAFS (Advanced Logarithmic Point And Figure System) closed out March with a 2.08% gain, putting in a top 1050 performance on the Monthly Auto Tracker. The system is currently in the C-Fund, is .63% MTD and .43% YTD. PnF conditions are healthy, all indexes remain bullish, but the Transports are lagging a bit, having recently established a Double Bottom, which did not trigger a bearish reversal.

  • SPX has recaptured 83% of the 2015 Highs to 2016 lows.
  • W4500 has recaptured 61% of the 2015 Highs to 2016 lows.
  • TRAN has recaptured 86% of the 2014 Highs to 2016 lows.
  • NDX has recaptured 78% of the 2015 Highs to 2016 lows.

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For myself, I've closed out March with a 3.23% gain, putting in a top 900 performance on the Monthly Auto Tracker. I'm currently in the C-Fund, .63% MTD and -1.31% YTD. The previous 10-March decision to move into the C-Fund (vs. the S-Fund) lost me an additional .66% edge, but I did meet my 3-4% monthly expectations, so I'll call it a minor win.

For April, I'll look to deviate from the other 2 systems in an attempt to narrow the -3.31% performance gap against the C-Fund. However, any sideline move I do make will be short-term, because April is not the month to be under-invested.
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Take care…Jason

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Updated 04-03-2016 at 05:38 AM by JTH

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)