JTH

Good evening

I don't solely use stats to make trades but I also don't tug on Superman's cape or spit into the wind. I'm starting up the old blog again so members won't have to dig through the daily drivel in my account talk to find the data they need to make an informed choice.

Overall, for the S&P 500, Monday is a better buying opportunity than selling opportunity.

If you are looking to exit the markets this Monday, statistically you may want to hold off until this Tuesday. While Monday does have a negative bias, the good news is that the following day tends to have a positive bias that trumps the previous day's action. Looking at the chart below, we show that over the last 10, 20, & 50 Mondays, the next days performance is better in almost all cases. The Negative Monday bias is more predominate in the short-term but as with most statistics, the further we go out, the more things tend to equalize.

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If you are looking to enter the markets this Monday, then statistically, over the last 60 days, Monday may give you the best opportunity when considering the 12:00 Noon Cutoff time for IFTs. Over the last 10 Mondays, if we close down at the 12 Noon IFT deadline, then previous odds are 60% the second half of the day will also close down.

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For this week we are entering days 11-15 of April, statistically over the last 20 years this 5-day span offers the best performance for the month of April. Days 11, 12, & 14 have the highest win ratios at 65% and all 5 days carry a higher 20-year cumulative average when compared to days 1-5, 6-10, 16-20, & 21-22. Of these 5 days, 15 of 20 have closed up for a 75% winning ratio, but BE WARNED, 3 of the last 4 years this 5-day span has ended down.

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We are entering week 16 of 2013, over the past 20 years, week 16 & 17 tie in 2nd place with the best 20 year average gain at .84% This week is also in the top 25% (Top 13 of 52 weeks) for a 65% (13 up vs. 7 down) winning ratio, in a 9-way tie for 3rd place.

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I've already posted this in my account talk, here it is in excel form. Statistically I count anything at or over 60% as having a distinct edge, while the below stats don't meet this criteria they do come close.

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---------------------DISCLAIMER--------------------

The majority of this data is based off the S&P 500's past prices, typically over the last 20 years. If this data does not come from the S&P 500, then I will state what index it is derived from, otherwise assume it is of the same source. While most of the data is computer generated, much of it is still done by hand and is therefore subject to the occasional human error. Past data does not guarantee future results! We are all grownups here so we should already know we are each individually responsible for our own accounts, so if it doesn't work out, it's your own fault. Occasional I get PMs from newer members, asking me what to do with their accounts, so here's my answer. Find out what DCA is then do it for a long time. In the meantime read, read, read, then practice what you read, then figure out where you screwed up, then start the process all over again.

Take care...Jason