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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Guessing Game Continues - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    It looked like the bulls were going to have a good day today as the morning session saw nice gains in volatile action. But as noon approached the gains appeared limited. The DWCPF peaked early, while the S&P had more than one peak. Both indexes succumbed to selling pressure in the afternoon session.

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    Price closed for a loss on both charts. Interestingly, price closed pretty much on support at the 50 dma.
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  2. End of the Week Reversal - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Friday's market action saw a big intraday reversal that saw price erase all or most of Thursday's losses. The week ended mixed with the S&P posting a decent gain of 0.85%, but the DWCPF falling for a loss of 2.12%.

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    Market Talk-dwcpf-png

    The reversal on Friday shows long tails on the both charts, which may mark a low. Price on the S&P closed back over its 50 dma, while the DWCPF fell a bit short and remains under that key
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  3. Bears Have the Momentum - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bears broke through support today and price closed well under the 50 dma on both charts.

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    We can also see that price closed off the lows of the day. That may not mean much in the context of a bearish NAAIM reading. Momentum accelerated to the downside. Volume was up. I was asked if a switch has been flipped. I was not ready to embrace that notion the way I did over a year ago, but yields are now
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  4. Support Gets Tested Again - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bears made it 2 in a row on Wednesday as price fell back once again.

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    Support at the 50 dma continues to hold. This is more or less the 3 test of support in this area. Momentum is falling. Volume was on the average side.

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    Cumulative breadth, while negative today, wasn't overly negative. The signal did not move lower by much, which is interesting.
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  5. Back and Forth Action Continues - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The back and forth action (and volatility) continued today. Price diving into the close certainly doesn't make me bullish for Wednesday.

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    Not much to say about the charts. Price is in a range now between rising support and overhead resistance. I tend to think the action favors the bulls beyond the short term; mainly because it is a bull market and the bears have not been able to do more than moderate
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes