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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Bulls Challenge the Bears - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bulls took back a chunk of recent losses today. It was a decisive reversal, but does not yet change the intermediate term trend, which is down.

    Green for Stop-s-p-500-png
    Green for Stop-dwcpf-png

    Price remains below the 50 dma on both charts, which is now an area of resistance. We'll have to see if the bulls can test this average and whether they can successfully retake it.

    Green for Stop-nyad-png

    Breadth turned
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  2. The Battle Continues - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    We had a bit of a roller coaster ride today with the averages closing mixed by the close.

    Transfer 9/30 for 10/01/04-s-p-500-png
    Transfer 9/30 for 10/01/04-dwcpf-png

    The bulls were not able to recoup much, if any, losses today. We can see that the DWCPF dipped for a modest loss.

    Transfer 9/30 for 10/01/04-nyad-png

    Breadth was a bit weak and remains bearish.

    NAAIM came in a bit more bearish today and I see the reading as bearish overall,
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  3. Where are the Bulls? Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The technical picture got more bearish today as the bears hammered price lower.

    Counting on a Bush Fire-s-p-500-png
    Counting on a Bush Fire-dwcpf-png

    It's looking more likely that the 200 dma is going to get tested. Momentum is negative. The market is not oversold (just an observation).

    Counting on a Bush Fire-nyad-png

    Breadth fell along with price. It remains a bearish indicator.

    Today's action was decidedly bearish. The market
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  4. 50 dma Needs to be Retaken - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bulls fought back on lighter volume to close with a gain today.

    Market Talk-s-p-500-png
    Market Talk-dwcpf-png

    The 50 dma was not retaken, but it isn't far under that key average. It's possible it may act as resistance given price has been below that average for 3 days now (on the S&P 500).

    Market Talk-nyad-png

    Breadth ticked higher, but remains bearish.

    We're just going to have to see if
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  5. Market Gets Whacked - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Seemed like everything was under attack today (stocks, precious metal, crypto). We've seen this before.

    Counting on a Bush Fire-s-p-500-png
    Counting on a Bush Fire-dwcpf-png

    The DWCPF joined the S&P under the 50 dma today. Volume was very elevated. If there weren't 2 sides battling this out, I suspect the market would have fallen apart altogether. But even if it isn't falling apart, it's moving lower. The 200 dma is still further below and we may yet test it.
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes