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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Anyone Still Doubting the Bull's Resolve? Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    After today's upside follow through of Tuesday big reversal (bottom), the odds just went up that fresh highs may be coming in the days ahead.

    Spell Checker is Finally Working-spx-png
    Spell Checker is Finally Working-dwcpf-png

    Both charts show price poised to challenge previous all-time highs. Momentum looks like it may be getting ready to turn back up. Strength has certainly turned higher and volume was on the robust side. It sure looks like a bottom is in. Now price has to test overhead
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  2. Bulls Counter Another Downside Push - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bears got an early jump on the bulls again today, taking price lower at the open, but the bulls didn't wait long to bottom out the selling pressure and slowly push price higher.

    Market Talk-spx-png
    Market Talk-dwcpf-png

    By the end of the day, the S&P 500 had erased all losses (on the day) and actually closed modestly positive. The DWCPF came close to doing the same thing, but closed moderately lower. Both indexes show price coming near the
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  3. Consolidation Continues - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bears hit the gates running today, but the bulls countered with buying pressure by late morning into early afternoon. It was not enough. Buying pressure peaked in mid-afternoon and price fell all the way into the close.

    Market Talk-spx-png
    Market Talk-dwcpf-png

    The selling is still out of the ordinary. The charts are showing a short term (to this point) dip after a multi-day rally starting at the beginning of the month. The 50 dma is still
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  4. Is it Different This Time? Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bears won the weekly price war last week. The S&P and DWCPF both closed for losses on the week (less than 1% on the C and S funds). That's not bad at all and actually bolsters the possibility that this is yet another buying opportunity (DWCPF bounced on Friday). It also doesn't hurt that NAAIM remains bulled up.

    Daily Funds Returns-spx-png
    Daily Funds Returns-dwcpf-png

    With the recent weakness the charts don't look any different than what we saw with previous
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    Updated 02-21-2021 at 08:49 PM by coolhand

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  5. More Profit Taking - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Profit taking continued today. It really isn't a surprise given how much the indexes had risen over the past 2 weeks or so. Of course, the question is whether it's just another buying opportunity or is it different this time. Last year at this time it was different. But unlike last year, I haven't sensed any switches being flipped (as yet).

    Market Talk-spx-png
    Market Talk-dwcpf-png

    The charts show us dips along the way as price has steadily
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes