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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. DWCPF Slides Again, But Will Support Hold? - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The market took a step back today.

    7 Oct 04 Worse Day of the Year - Market Timer Back-spx-png
    7 Oct 04 Worse Day of the Year - Market Timer Back-dwcpf-png

    Once again, the DWCPF got the worst of the selling. We can see in the chart that price kissed support at the 50 dma and backed off (up) from that level. For the moment, it's a successful test. But will it get tested again and if it does will it hold?

    7 Oct 04 Worse Day of the Year - Market Timer Back-nyad-png

    Cumulative breadth fell today, but the signal remains above
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  2. Indicators Still Point Up - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bulls closed out the week last week with solid gains for the both the S&P and the DWCPF. NAAIM has been bullish, so it should not be much of a surprise that price is rising.

    Market Talk-spx-png
    Market Talk-dwcpf-png

    Price on the S&P continues to rise to new all-time highs. That chart is showing on overbought condition (RSI), but we know how overbought can get more overbought. The DWCPF continues to struggle against resistance, but it's still
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  3. Smart Money Gets More Bullish - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bulls had control for pretty much the whole day today. And it was a more even rally, which we really needed.

    7 Oct 04 Worse Day of the Year - Market Timer Back-spx-png
    7 Oct 04 Worse Day of the Year - Market Timer Back-dwcpf-png

    Price on the S&P gapped higher at the open and never really looked back. Price on the DWCPF also gapped higher, but was almost immediately hit with selling pressure that drove it down quickly in short order. That selling pressure got bought not long after it started and the DWCPF continued
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  4. Mixed Close - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bulls owned the morning session, but then the bears stepped in and took control in the afternoon. All in all the close was kinda neutral (mixed).

    7 Oct 04 Worse Day of the Year - Market Timer Back-spx-png
    7 Oct 04 Worse Day of the Year - Market Timer Back-dwcpf-png

    Price didn't move far off the neutral line today. I do note that price on the DWCPF, which was moving higher fairly well in the morning session, fell apart in the afternoon. That does not bode well for small caps as price was rejected near the trend line
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  5. Positive Tuesday - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    It was a choppy morning session on Tuesday, but the afternoon session belonged to the bulls.

    Market Talk-spx-png
    Market Talk-dwcpf-png

    The S&P continues its movement higher. The DWCPF gained as well, but it's still in no-man's land (neutral) with a modest bullish bias (overhead resistance).

    Market Talk-nyad-png

    Breadth has almost stalled the past few trading days, but remains bullish. It's possible the
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes