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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Choppy Wednesday - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    We got a choppy day today.

    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-s-p-500-png
    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-dwcpf-png

    Price eked higher by the close. Momentum is flat. Price is also creeping toward the upper end of its current medium term range (past few weeks). Note that the 50 dma is getting very close to having a positive cross of the 200 dma on the S&P 500.

    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-nyad-png

    Breadth was flat, but remains bullish overall. Keep in mind that while
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  2. Upside Follow Through - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    A headline I just saw late this afternoon said that the market just closed out the best quarter in decades. I would not have expected that if I wasn't told.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/stoc...lose-news.html

    The bulls kept it going today as price closed out with decent gains.

    Market Pull Back-s-p-500-png
    Market Pull Back-dwcpf-png

    Price is now in the middle of the current short term range.
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  3. 200 Day Moving Average Reclaimed - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Yesterday, I said that since price fell (closed) below the 200 dma that the bulls may mount another upside attack. Sure enough, the week started out with a rally that pushed price back above the 200 dma. Maybe there's more.

    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-s-p-500-png
    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-dwcpf-png

    So, price has now closed above the 200 dma on both charts, but not by a lot. Momentum has not yet turned back up either, but it's a start if the bulls continue to press. I still think
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  4. Another Test in Progress - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bears put up a fight last week to keep price from trending higher. I had said over the past week or so that the rising 50 dma was nearing a positive cross of the 200, which is technically bullish. This is certainly not lost on the bears, who are trying to turn this market around (lower). The 200 dma is also a key area in this fight.

    help! new playing catch-up-s-p-500-png
    help! new playing catch-up-dwcpf-png

    Volume was elevated on Friday as price closed below the 200 dma
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  5. Bears Make Their Presence Known - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The battle over the 200 dma is back in focus again as stock prices fell sharply lower today.

    Market Pull Back-s-p-500-png
    Market Pull Back-dwcpf-png

    The 200 dma did not get tested on the SPX, but it did come close. The DWCPF shows that price did fall under it intraday, but managed to close pretty much right on it. Momentum is falling.

    Market Pull Back-nyad-png

    Breadth took a hit and is now neutral.

    NAAIM
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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