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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Waiting for Something - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bulls finally bounced the market today. There is no way to really know if the market has bottomed so I'd not bet on it unless you're positioning yourself for a possible launch (or at least bottom) over the days ahead. Some rallies can manifest quickly and go deep, just like declines. NAAIM is straddling the market between neutral and bullish positions. They are definitely not bearish.

    Best Guess-s-p-500-png
    Best Guess-dwcpf-png

    Not much to
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  2. Bulls Get Pounded - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bears really took it to the bulls today. Neither a bullish smart money reading nor the wall of worry has kept this market from probing lower.

    namor's Vegas Boxer Account Talk-s-p-500-png
    namor's Vegas Boxer Account Talk-dwcpf-png

    We'll, price on the S&P 500 is now approaching the September low. Will that act as support or do the bears have other ideas like testing the 200 dma? Price on the DWCPF closed below its 50 dma today. Volume was a bit elevated. Momentum is hard to the downside.
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  3. Downtrend Continues - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bears made it 2 in a row today. The market wasn't hammered, but it's been trending lower now for over 2 weeks. And NAAIM has been bullish for most of that time. At this point, I have to say that the smart money was too early this time.

    Transfer 9/30 for 10/01/04-s-p-500-png
    Transfer 9/30 for 10/01/04-dwcpf-png

    Price on the S&P edged a bit further below the 50 dma. It's still not far from that key average and hopefully it won't stay below it for much longer. Price on the
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  4. Bulls Getting Tested - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bears started off the week with another attack on price that sent the indexes lower, though the market did close well off the lows of the day.

    tsp and roth-s-p-500-png
    tsp and roth-dwcpf-png

    The most notable thing about the charts is that price on the S&P 500 closed under the 50 dma today. The question is, will it stick? The DWCPF remains in better shape, but it too has been under pressure. Momentum took a turn lower.

    tsp and roth-nyad-png
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  5. Indexes Post Moderate Weekly Loss - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    As difficult as this market has seemed at times, the indexes were only down moderately last week (about 0.5% or less). They still sport significant gains on the month.

    Green for Stop-s-p-500-png
    Green for Stop-dwcpf-png

    Friday saw the market make it 2 up days in a row. Momentum is flattening. I'd like to see price on the S&P 500 make a run at the September high and break to the upside from there. I suspect that will eventually happen.
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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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