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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. The Bulls Push Price Above a Key Average - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Given the strength of Tuesday's rally, it probably shouldn't be a surprise that Wednesday saw more strength. Breadth and volume appeared to be indicating that the move was not transient.

    namor's Vegas Boxer Account Talk-s-p-500-png
    namor's Vegas Boxer Account Talk-dwcpf-png

    We can see that price has now closed above the 200 dma on the S&P and is sitting on that key average on the DWCPF. Volume was a bit more robust than the previous session.

    namor's Vegas Boxer Account Talk-nyad-png
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  2. Break Out Imminent? Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Sooner or later it was almost certainly going to happen. The 200 dma got tested on the S&P 500 today.

    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-s-p-500-png
    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-dwcpf-png

    Price closed largely on that key average at the end of the trading day. Price on the DWCPF closed just under its 200 dma. Momentum turned up. Volume was fairly robust. That's a plus for the bulls.

    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-nyad-png

    Looking at breadth, it soared. That's what
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  3. The Bulls Remain in Charge - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    All in all, the bulls had a pretty good week last week as price bounced all the way back to the upper end of the trading range, though higher highs were hit.

    YIELD CURVE-s-p-500-png
    YIELD CURVE-dwcpf-png

    We can see that price on the S&P 500 is tracking sideways just under its 200 dma. Volume has fallen off. Price on the DWCPF is ebbing higher and closed for significant gains on the week.

    YIELD CURVE-nyad-png
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  4. Bulls Counter Attempted Sell-Off - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bears tried to take the market back down early on in the trading day, but the bulls turned it back up to erase some of the losses.

    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-s-p-500-png
    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-dwcpf-png

    The DWCPF actually closed marginally higher, while the S&P was thrown for a moderate loss. Still, no technical damage was done and price remains not far under the 200 dma.

    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-nyad-png

    Breadth held up well and remains modestly
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  5. Test Imminent? Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bulls turned it right back around after Tuesday's decline.

    Transfer 9/20 for 9/21/04-s-p-500-png
    Transfer 9/20 for 9/21/04-dwcpf-png

    In fact, price on both charts closed at a higher high. Looking at the S&P 500, we can see that price is snugged up just under the 200 dma.

    Transfer 9/20 for 9/21/04-nyad-png

    Breadth remains positive (bullish).

    I suspect that a test of the 200 dma is coming soon. Perhaps tomorrow for the S&P 500. That
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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