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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Turning the Corner? Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bulls turned things around today as stocks started out mixed, but began to rally by mid-morning eventually closing out the day with good gains.

    Best Guess-s-p-500-png
    Best Guess-dwcpf-png

    I note that price on the S&P 500 came very close to testing the 50 dma before reversing. Price on the DWCPF has held its position well above its respective 50 dma.

    Best Guess-nyad-png

    Breadth ticked higher and remains
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  2. The Slide Continues - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Wednesday's market action wasn't much different than we've seen of late; early strength followed by weakness. Price was up and down, but by the close the indexes were down on the day.

    Tracking your Annual +/- %  returns-s-p-500-png
    Tracking your Annual +/- %  returns-dwcpf-png

    It's obvious there's a battle going, but so far the bulls have contained any serious technical damage to the charts. It's worth noting that overbought conditions more than a week ago are well out of overbought territory
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  3. Bulls and Bears Battle Again - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Once again, the market started out on the strong side only to see selling pressure manifest later in the trading session.

    Transfer 9/30 for 10/01/04-s-p-500-png
    Transfer 9/30 for 10/01/04-dwcpf-png

    The selling pressure erased sizable gains on the S&P 500, but that index still managed to post moderate gains by the close. The DWCPF closed with a modest loss. Overall, it wasn't a bad day for the bulls, but they have not been able to mount an upside attack without the bears countering
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  4. Bears Just Won't Go Away - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Well, It's obvious that the bears have not gone away as yet. The market started out positive, but could not maintain that positive start.

    Best Guess-s-p-500-png
    Best Guess-dwcpf-png

    Looking at the charts, we can see that the S&P 500 is now getting close to testing its 50 dma. Price on the DWCPF appears to be weathering the weakness a bit better than the S&P. Neither chart is showing any serious technical damage, but if the S&P 500 doesn't firm
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  5. Market Appears to be Firming Up - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    For all the downside pressure the bears tried to put on last week, the C and S funds still managed to eke out modest gains on the week. Friday's action, coming just 1 day after a decisively bullish NAAIM reading, saw more back and forth price movement that resulted in largely a mixed close on the day. Keep in mind that NAAIM readings are not daily readings. They are weekly readings, so instant gratification is not a given.

    Best Guess-s-p-500-png
    Best Guess-dwcpf-png
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes