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Coolhand's Market Analysis

Do You Have an Edge?

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Welcome to the biggest casino in existence, where bets are placed on a seemingly infinite number of financial vehicles spanning hundreds of markets and thousands of sectors across the entire planet. Choose your favorite game mode from fundamentals to charting, astrology to sentiment, and many, many others. Step right up ladies and gentlemen, there's big money to me made.

Sounds like fun, doesn't it? Even Jim Cramer makes it sound like a carnival. Speaking of Jim Cramer, make sure you check some statistics regarding his picks:

http://www.cramerproject.com/stocks.php

But this post isn't about Jim Cramer. He just happens to be one of the most visible market gurus out there. Judging by his stock pick performance, a below average one as gurus go. And he's suppose to be very market savvy.

But perhaps that's a subjective opinion. Fact of the matter is no market guru gets it right all the time.

So where does that leave the average investor?

Make no mistake, the market takes no prisoners if one decides to move their money around. It's tough enough on buy and holders; it can be brutal for an unskilled trader.

This particular blog is not aimed at those who have been trading for awhile and/or developed some skills and market savvy to guide their way. I'm really speaking to those who are looking for an alternative to buy and hold. Those folks who are unhappy with their performance, but are at odds with how to change it. Those folks who want to learn, but are finding it a confusing venture.

My recommendation? Find a good quality service (it does not have to be expensive) to keep yourself grounded while trying to get your arms around the markets. I've said this before, and it's only my opinion, but I've learned that unless you have the time and smarts to follow the action, it can be a humbling, painful experience, which often results in complete frustration and emotional distress.

I have my own guru that I'm plugged in to and I wouldn't have it any other way. Eventually, I may decide to go it alone, but I have a life and a job, not to mention a daughter to keep track of so I need a trusted source of information.

Whatever you decide to do, remember that the objective is to beat the market. Not every trade will be a winner, but over time, hopefully, you'll do better than you were doing before. I hope this post isn't viewed as a sales pitch either, it isn't. Simply put, the cost of getting good advice is nothing compared to the losses that too often come with attempting to trade the markets through trial and error.

Consider giving yourself an edge.

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Updated 02-09-2009 at 05:50 AM by coolhand

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Comments

  1. KevinD's Avatar
    How do I find one? Where do I look?

    I've been exposed to Ira, Oscar, Don Harrold and others but how do I pick?

    I Googled "investment advisers" and found this.

    http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/invadvisers.htm
  2. coolhand's Avatar
    Hello KevinD,

    The info you googled is tailored more to face to face investment advice, which as the SEC explained, may be a little more broad than just providing investing advice. It could entail financial planning as well. You'd be hiring someone to provide more personalized advice in this situation.

    I was referring more to stock trading advice. It really depends on your needs though. Is it just for TSP? Is is to help you learn how to trade stocks? Maybe you're looking for a financial planner or simply someone to manage an IRA.

    There's an awful lot of services out there as you're probably aware. Once you know what kind of help you're looking for you'd have to check out how well those services that appear to fit your needs have performed in the past.

    For me, I wanted someone to help guide me through the markets on a day to day basis. Someone with a lot of experience who understands the games being played that are largely transparent to most folks. Someone I could learn from and not just tell me what to buy and when.

    Maybe some other posters would like to weigh in here and share your thoughts.
  3. anthony's Avatar
    I like stock trading, but I find that with so companies out there it can be a bit daunting and easy to get sidetracked. I use the Motley Fools' services (Hidden Gems for now), not so much to tell me exactly what to buy and sell, but more to just narrow my focus. It can be tedious researching companies, so paring that down to 10-20 is really helpful. I also like Trader Fred's ETF models for use in a self-directed brokerage Roth IRA. Only takes 10 minutes a day to read some material and make some choices.
  4. tsptalk's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by anthony
    I also like Trader Fred's ETF models for use in a self-directed brokerage Roth IRA.
    Good to hear Anthony. I'm surprised we don't get more feedback on Trader Fred. His ETF trades have been very strong, even in his conservative approach. The 2008 returns were nothing to sneeze at, particularly with the carnage we saw in stocks.

    2008 returns:


    He has increased the # of models to 14 this year, and 3 of the now 14 models he tracks are already up double digits for the year, with only one being down (-1.89%).

S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes