Coolhand's Market Analysis

Originally Posted by coolhand

We'll, we got an inspiring day today. It just wasn't for the bulls, but rather the bears who got some inspiration. All thanks to higher interest rate talks.




Price on the S&P fell, but did close well off its low of the day. Price also fell on the DWCPF, testing support at the 50 dma, which it did successfully as it close above that level after spending some time under it. Momentum is falling on both charts. I have to wonder why NAAIM has been so bullish. Is something else coming that turns things up?



Breadth dipped, but not a lot. The signal remains bullish.

Are the days of easy gains over? It sure is starting to feel that way. Looking at the DWCPF, we can see that we have a double top over the past 2.5 months. The S&P has fared much better, but it has largely stalled for more than 2 weeks. I am not bearish on this data, but it is noteworthy and certainly something to watch.

So, today's action wasn't what the bulls were looking for, but technical damage remains pretty light to this point. Since NAAIM has been bullish, I'm assuming price will turn back up at some point. But I'm still at least somewhat concerned about the DWCPF trading in a range as long as it has. Since the S&P has been trending higher during this time (expect the past couple of weeks), I have given the benefit of the doubt to small caps that they would eventually play catch up. We'll just have to keep watching the action for more clues as time goes on.

I remain bullish, but I am not complacent.