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Coolhand's Market Analysis

Is it Different This Time? Posted by Coolhand

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Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
The bears won the weekly price war last week. The S&P and DWCPF both closed for losses on the week (less than 1% on the C and S funds). That's not bad at all and actually bolsters the possibility that this is yet another buying opportunity (DWCPF bounced on Friday). It also doesn't hurt that NAAIM remains bulled up.

Daily Funds Returns-spx-png
Daily Funds Returns-dwcpf-png

With the recent weakness the charts don't look any different than what we saw with previous dips. Volume is normal. There doesn't appear to be any serious moves toward the exits right now. That's today. Tomorrow or next week could change the picture, or not.

Daily Funds Returns-nyad-png

Cumulative breadth bounced on Friday and remains bullish.

The TSP Talk sentiment survey came in bearish this week. That's diametrically opposed to NAAIM. We don't do that often. In fact, as I've stated in past posts, I don't treat our sentiment survey as dumb money. Not when we are collectively aligned to the NAAIM reading as often as we are. But I trust NAAIM more than TSP Talk sentiment reading. Prove me wrong.

Of course, NAAIM remains heavily bulled up for the new week.

How can I get bearish on these readings? I can't. Although I understand the angst about a market that seems to be moving in just one direction. Eventually, it will be different this time. Is it this time? Maybe. But I have to go with the balance of evidence and that means I remain bullish.

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Updated 02-21-2021 at 07:49 PM by coolhand

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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