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Coolhand's Market Analysis

Waiting for Something - Posted by Coolhand

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Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
The bulls finally bounced the market today. There is no way to really know if the market has bottomed so I'd not bet on it unless you're positioning yourself for a possible launch (or at least bottom) over the days ahead. Some rallies can manifest quickly and go deep, just like declines. NAAIM is straddling the market between neutral and bullish positions. They are definitely not bearish.

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Not much to say about the charts. Price is back at the 50 dma on the DWCPF, but still below it on the S&P 500. Momentum has yet to turn back up. I note that the market is not oversold (not that it needs to be for a turn higher), so that could be reason for remaining at least cautious.

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Breadth bounced, but remains bearish.

As I noted earlier today, NAAIM was less bullish, but still bullish (modestly so). It was notable that there is little evidence of any serious shorting with these money managers, so I'd be careful about getting too bearish. These guys appear to be waiting for something and that something may mark a bottom before moving price to the upside. But when? Likely before not much longer as they are still holding significant long side trades.

Now that I've seen how they are positioned heading into next week (with Nov. 3rd in sight) I am moving from neutral to a modestly bullish sentiment. Weakness may still manifest until the market gets whatever it is looking for.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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