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Coolhand's Market Analysis

Take That Bears

Rating: 3 votes, 3.67 average.
BAM! Take that bears. Today's trading started out fast, with a gap higher followed by high, broad-based volume interest. Today's close leaves the S&P 500 just 1% below its 52-week high.

It's amazing how fast the news shifts, and with it the market's fortunes. After some bad news on Greece, Portugal, and Spain earlier this week, today's' bond action saw their yields contract, which allays concerns about the severity of these county's fiscal health. I may not agree with that assessment, but that's how the market apparently perceived it.

The only two data releases today saw the initial jobless rate come in at 448,000, which was more than forcast, but not by much. Continuing claims came in at 4.65 million, again higher than expected, but not by much.

Today's action was positive for the seven sentinels as they move back to a more bullish stance, but we're not out of the woods just yet. Take a look:

Patterns-namo-jpg

We had enough buying pressure today to flip NAMO and NYMO back to buys.

Patterns-nahl-jpg

NAHL and NYHL came very close to flipping, but remain on a sell for the moment.

Patterns-trin-jpg

TRIN remained on a buy, but TRINQ flipped to a sell.

Patterns-bpcompq-jpg

BPCOMPQ improved and moved higher, but is still just below that upper bollinger band. It remains on a sell unless it can penetrate that BB to the upside.

So we now have 3 of 7 seven signals on a buy, which keeps the system on a buy. I would really like to see BPCOMPQ get back above that BB. As long as it remains on a sell the sentinels are much more susceptible to issuing a sell signal on weakness. I'm thinking we may be close to an intermediate term sell signal, but I'm expecting at least one more surge to new highs first. And not necessarily as a one-day event either. But that's speculation on my part as the SS have the final word on that. That's it for this evening. See you tomorrow.

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Comments

  1. JTH's Avatar
    Thanks for the updates CH, I do enjoy my 5 minute briefs, clear concise and I like it when you add in a one-liner on the news, it saves me a trip to google.
  2. Cruzen's Avatar
    I am new to this site. I like the SS system because it seems to be less sensitive in buying and selling. I am not sure what CH's allocation is in the TSP funds, is there another place to look.

    Thanks for posting the SS and market review
  3. coolhand's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Cruzen
    I am new to this site. I like the SS system because it seems to be less sensitive in buying and selling. I am not sure what CH's allocation is in the TSP funds, is there another place to look.

    Thanks for posting the SS and market review
    Welcome aboard Cruzen! I think you'll continue to like the SS. Check out the tracker for everyone's allocations including mine.

    http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp-tracker.php
  4. FireWeatherMet's Avatar
    You were saying????

    Grrrrowl I'm Baaackk!

  5. coolhand's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet
    You were saying????

    Grrrrowl I'm Baaackk!

    You have to keep my comments in the context that they were made. It's day to day stuff. But the Seven Sentinels have the final word independent of my comments at all times. They take priority. I think a few folks have figured that out and are doing much better than I using the SS. Also, one of the things I do not share with the board is my premium service analysis from Trader's Talk. It also influences my outlook at times. But I'm starting to limit how much of my decisions are made based on that service and now depend more on the SS. It has been a superior performer.
  6. FireWeatherMet's Avatar
    Good luck to you on the SS.

    One thing regarding guidance.

    Most meteorologists I know put out rather poor forecasts during extreme or fast changing weather events. Many of them rely on statistical model guidance, which does very well when the weather is normal (i.e. in the middle of the cycle). However, whenever a shift in the large scale pattern occur, the statistical models fail to latch onto the change until its already too late.

    The best forecasts (both meteorological and financial) seem to be done with a combination of model guidance and heuristic (proven rules of thumb/independent analysis). I'm still leaning the financial side but I'm a fast learner. I like using the 10-20 day EMA's for dips in a large scale upward bull run. I like using the 50 and 100 day EMA's for the typical 3-4 month cycle pullbacks. I like to learn from past lessons, Like this past January when I wanted to do a quick 1 to 2 day "in and out", but got caught in the larger correction which I knew was about to occur, but I thought I could outsmart the market and make a quick 1-2% before the drop. Since then, I've learned to not be overly greedy..to take what the market cycle and limited IFT's give you.

    Thats why I sat in the -G- until the morning of the Goldman dip and went all into the C and S funds. That's why after a 2.9% 5-day profit I got out on COB that Friday the 23rd. That's why know I'm likely about to jump back in.

    FYI...Cramer (Mad Money) said on his Friday show that we should look for another 1-2% dip early next week and then would be a good time to buy. So I'm tentatively leaning in that direction.

    p.s.
    How was the ZZ Top concert?
  7. coolhand's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet
    Good luck to you on the SS.

    One thing regarding guidance.

    Most meteorologists I know put out rather poor forecasts during extreme or fast changing weather events. Many of them rely on statistical model guidance, which does very well when the weather is normal (i.e. in the middle of the cycle). However, whenever a shift in the large scale pattern occur, the statistical models fail to latch onto the change until its already too late.

    The best forecasts (both meteorological and financial) seem to be done with a combination of model guidance and heuristic (proven rules of thumb/independent analysis). I'm still leaning the financial side but I'm a fast learner. I like using the 10-20 day EMA's for dips in a large scale upward bull run. I like using the 50 and 100 day EMA's for the typical 3-4 month cycle pullbacks. I like to learn from past lessons, Like this past January when I wanted to do a quick 1 to 2 day "in and out", but got caught in the larger correction which I knew was about to occur, but I thought I could outsmart the market and make a quick 1-2% before the drop. Since then, I've learned to not be overly greedy..to take what the market cycle and limited IFT's give you.

    Thats why I sat in the -G- until the morning of the Goldman dip and went all into the C and S funds. That's why after a 2.9% 5-day profit I got out on COB that Friday the 23rd. That's why know I'm likely about to jump back in.

    FYI...Cramer (Mad Money) said on his Friday show that we should look for another 1-2% dip early next week and then would be a good time to buy. So I'm tentatively leaning in that direction.

    p.s.
    How was the ZZ Top concert?
    The concert was awesome as usual for ZZ. I'd seen them before in San Diego many years ago during their Eliminator tour. But every time I go to a concert (usually an older band) the crowd gets grayer and grayer. It's amusing to see folks in their 60s still pretending to be that "cool" twenty-something. I saw the same thing at the last Jethro Tull concert too.

    Things have turned very volatile at the moment. With only 2 IFTs we have to be willing to ride out some measure of volatility while the market does its thing of shaking out weak-handed bulls and bears day in and day out. It's important to remember that strategies and objectives vary widely between traders/investors. That's why I'd prefer folks don't follow my moves, but rather use the Seven Sentinels in a manner that fits their personal preference. Some of those folks are well ahead of you and I on the tracker.

S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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