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Coolhand's Market Analysis

Holding the Line for Now

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Last week, I said I was neutral. I opined that with recent all-time highs tagged not too long ago on the DWCPF, I had to give some weight to a possible correction of 4-5% and maybe even more over the days or weeks ahead. That's still valid. I noted that the BKX (Bank Index) has been weak of late, with price closing at its 50 dma the previous Friday. But then Monday, the BKX took off and rallied hard for most of the week. I felt that remaining long in the C, S, or I funds as long as breadth, liquidity and NAAIM remain bullish was the way to go. Those indicators were bullish and remain so now.

For the week, the TSP stock funds were down overall, but not by a ton. In fact, the S fund was only down by 0.03%, which is nil. At face value, the fact that smaller companies are showing relative strength is at least a bit bullish.

Sirius-s-p-500-png

The S&P 500 closed lower on the week and price did test (successfully) its 50 dma on Thursday. Price remains well above that key support area as we head into the new week. Momentum is not looking too bullish, but as long as price remains resilient, we could see momentum turn back up at some point.

Sirius-dwcpf-png

Price on DWCPF is near mid-range of it current trading channel. It looks like a consolidation pattern before another push through resistance. There remains a chance for a lower low, however. But the 50 dma held last week, so I don't think that's a high odds outcome before new highs.

I don't have much else to add that you haven't been hearing for some time now. Breadth, liquidity and NAAIM are bullish. Momentum is not helping, but it is due a turn higher. Our TSP Talk sentiment survey is neutral and the OEX P/C is bullish for Monday (smart money).

I am looking higher for next week, though it may only be moderately so if we get some buying pressure. I'm hoping for an upside breakout. The indicators support one and those indicators should be followed until proven otherwise.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes