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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. More Gains Down the Road? - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Today, the market gave us a mixed close, with the S&P advancing and the DWCPF pulling back. Neither were big moves.

    Market Talk-spx-png
    Market Talk-dwcpf-png

    So we can see that price pushed past resistance on the S&P, while it was rejected on the DWCPF. Momentum is still more or less flat on the S&P, but hinting at turning down on the DWCPF. I'd take it with a grain of salt right now.

    Market Talk-nyad-png
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  2. Market Stalls - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    It was another sloppy trading session today with the S&P and DWCPF both posted modest losses.

    Market Talk-spx-png
    Market Talk-dwcpf-png

    We can see that price didn't move all that much on either chart. The S&P and DWCPF both seem to be hitting resistance. It's as if the market is telling the bears "I'm ready to roll over, you can short now". And then the market will likely take off once again. Yeah, the bears love that game.
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  3. Toppy Action? - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The market gave us a choppy trading session on Tuesday. There were no big moves in either direction and the indexes closed not far from their neutral lines.

    Poll - How to Handle a Disruptive Member-spx-png
    Poll - How to Handle a Disruptive Member-dwcpf-png

    Price on the S&P does seem to be hitting resistance in the high 4180s. The DWCPF is also hitting resistance (near 2250). Is it near time for another dip? RSI is flat on both charts. Momentum is biased slightly lower on the S&P, but is still rising
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  4. DWCPF Leads the S&P - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Monday starts the week off on the bullish side as the S&P posted a modest gain, but the DWCPF rallied for more than 1%.

    Poll - How to Handle a Disruptive Member-spx-png
    Poll - How to Handle a Disruptive Member-dwcpf-png

    That rally in the DWCPF saw price close above the March peak and it's now testing the closing February peak. Momentum is rising on the DWCPF, but flat on the S&P.

    Poll - How to Handle a Disruptive Member-nyad-png

    Cumulative breadth hit another all-time high and remains bullish.
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  5. Market Remains Resilient - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Market resilience remains in evidence as Friday's rally demonstrates. For the week, the S&P dipped modestly, while the DWCPF rose moderately.

    Todays Comments-spx-png
    Todays Comments-dwcpf-png

    Looking at the DWCPF, price closed above the previous week's peak and is now ready to challenge or test the March peak. Price on the S&P closed very near its all-time high.

    Todays Comments-nyad-png

    Breadth hit a fresh high on
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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes