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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Resistance Holds - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bulls notched a win today, but it didn't clear up the fog around this market.

    Market Talk-spx-png
    Market Talk-dwcpf-png

    Price on the S&P attempted an upside break through resistance, but got pushed back for a modest gain overall. Price on the DWCPF came very close to testing resistance at its 50 dma. It closed for a decent gain on the day. Momentum and strength are not inspiring on either chart.

    Market Talk-nyad-png
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  2. Market Treading Water - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    It was another one of those up and down days today that saw a mixed close.

    Poll - How to Handle a Disruptive Member-spx-png
    Poll - How to Handle a Disruptive Member-dwcpf-png

    Volume was on the lighter side today. Price backed off the peak a bit more on the S&P. I get the impression that this index may be coiling for a upside break through resistance. The DWCPF bounced, but that does little to change the picture for this index, which remains below the 50 dma, but also above support in the 2020 area.
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  3. Small Caps Falter Again - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Today's action changed little in terms of market character. In particular, small caps got hit early in the trading session and never recovered. The S&P also got hit early, but it bounced back to close near the neutral line.

    Poll - How to Handle a Disruptive Member-spx-png
    Poll - How to Handle a Disruptive Member-dwcpf-png

    On the S&P chart, we can see that price failed to push past resistance, but it didn't give up much ground either. Price on the DWCPF gave back all of Friday's gains and bit more.
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  4. Picture Remains Mixed - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Friday saw a wild rally into the close, which capped a positive day overall, but depending on which fund you were exposed to you either had a good week or a not so good week as the C fund posted a solid gain, but the S fund was thrown for a hefty loss.

    Market Talk-spx-png
    Market Talk-dwcpf-png

    The good news is that the S&P is rallying hard off a successful test of support of its 50 dma. The S&P is also testing resistance at its all-time high.
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  5. Waiting For Something To Happen? Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bears had their way for the morning session, but the bulls got back in the game in the afternoon to close out the day with moderate gains.

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    AGGRESSION-dwcpf-png

    It remains a mixed picture with price on the DWCPF still under the 50 dma and above that key average on the S&P. Momentum has yet to turn back up. Volume has been average. Since the market turned today, it may be ready for the upswing. We'll have to see.
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes