Coolhand's Market Analysis

Originally Posted by coolhand

Before I get into my usual post, I want to address something I said last week because I find it interesting and perhaps even instructive. When the TSP Talk survey was released last week, I said the following:

"The TSP Talk sentiment survey came in bearish this week. That's diametrically opposed to NAAIM. We don't do that often. In fact, as I've stated in past posts, I don't treat our sentiment survey as dumb money. Not when we are collectively aligned to the NAAIM reading as often

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Originally Posted by coolhand

After today's upside follow through of Tuesday big reversal (bottom), the odds just went up that fresh highs may be coming in the days ahead.




Both charts show price poised to challenge previous all-time highs. Momentum looks like it may be getting ready to turn back up. Strength has certainly turned higher and volume was on the robust side. It sure looks like a bottom is in. Now price has to test overhead

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Originally Posted by coolhand

The bears got an early jump on the bulls again today, taking price lower at the open, but the bulls didn't wait long to bottom out the selling pressure and slowly push price higher.




By the end of the day, the S&P 500 had erased all losses (on the day) and actually closed modestly positive. The DWCPF came close to doing the same thing, but closed moderately lower. Both indexes show price coming near the

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Originally Posted by coolhand

The bears hit the gates running today, but the bulls countered with buying pressure by late morning into early afternoon. It was not enough. Buying pressure peaked in mid-afternoon and price fell all the way into the close.




The selling is still out of the ordinary. The charts are showing a short term (to this point) dip after a multi-day rally starting at the beginning of the month. The 50 dma is still

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Originally Posted by coolhand

The bears won the weekly price war last week. The S&P and DWCPF both closed for losses on the week (less than 1% on the C and S funds). That's not bad at all and actually bolsters the possibility that this is yet another buying opportunity (DWCPF bounced on Friday). It also doesn't hurt that NAAIM remains bulled up.




With the recent weakness the charts don't look any different than what we saw with previous

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