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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Mixed Close, But Still Bullish - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The last day of August saw the market close mixed, though it was only because a late day sell-off took some of the indices out of positive territory. It wasn't anything unusual.

    Market Talk-s-p-500-png
    Market Talk-dwcpf-png

    The charts continue to look very bullish, though overbought.

    Market Talk-nyad-png

    Breadth remains so-so, though still bullish.

    The smart money is bulled up, so I see no reason
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  2. Bull Party Continues - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bulls notched some good gains last week as all 3 TSP stocks saw price rise significantly. Especially the S&P 500, which captured a weekly gain of 3.29%.

    Allocating TSP investments in portfolio evaluators-s-p-500-png
    Allocating TSP investments in portfolio evaluators-dwcpf-png

    The DWCPF has finally joined the S&P 500 in attaining a new all-time high. It lags the S&P 500 overall, but it's doing well regardless. I note that RSI is overbought on both charts; especially the S&P 500.

    Is this a problem?
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  3. Price Continues Rising - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The melt-up continued today, though it was on the volatile side.

    Market Talk-s-p-500-png
    Market Talk-dwcpf-png

    Price on the S&P continues to eke higher, while price on the DWCPF is now testing resistance.

    Market Talk-nyad-png

    Breadth is not advancing (no new highs), so the overall rally in the broader market is not seeing as broad a segment of stocks participating. It's not necessarily bearish, but I think
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  4. S&P 500 Leading the Way - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Of late, it's been an uneven rally and it's showing up in the breadth reading. Is it of concern? I don't think so. Not as long as you are in index funds.

    trades-s-p-500-png
    trades-dwcpf-png

    And it's the S&P 500 in particular that is currently leading the DWCPF. I don't know how long that goes on. Normally, I'd expect the DWCPF to play catch up sooner or later. I have no reason not to expect that this time either. But it's not like the
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  5. Market Probes Higher - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    After some negative/sideways action early on, price found a way to break to the upside in the afternoon session and close positive on the day.

    Transfer 9/30 for 10/01/04-s-p-500-png
    Transfer 9/30 for 10/01/04-dwcpf-png

    There is no resistance above on the S&P chart, but price on the DWCPF has not yet cleared resistance. I suspect it will eventually follow the S&P 500 and that it may not be much longer before it does.

    Transfer 9/30 for 10/01/04-nyad-png
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes